KQo in CO facing a lot of action

Hi!

Since there are so many draws possible I would go for a cap on the flop. The only logical hands that BB has that beat you are QT and 66 and Im pretty sure he will do that with some worse Kx,FDs,SD at least sometimes and SB is behind pretty much always.

Turn as played calling is fine but SB raise is nasty. Still 1:12,5 is too much for me to fold despite him possibly having 9T or set which make you dead.

River you should fold though. You basically only beat spews and you are not even completing the action so guys may raise even further. Since stats of these two players dont seem even remotely irrational I find it quite an easy fold. Even folding to turn raise wouldnt be a big mistake since if even.

How do you calculate equity??? there is something wrong you are doing since if you had 60% its really close to a 3bet which it clearly isnt:)

Hi Dawnfall,

With the equity I went with their VPIP stats, which on the flop equilab gives as

Board: T♠6♠Q♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     51.97%  49.51%   2.45% { KdQs }
SB     22.73%  21.18%   1.55% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
BB     25.30%  23.54%   1.77% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

on turn it reckons

Board: T♠6♠Q♣ 8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     47.37%  45.38%   1.99% { KdQs }
SB     25.16%  23.74%   1.42% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
BB     27.46%  25.82%   1.64% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

and river it gives

Board: T♠6♠Q♣ 8♥ 8♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     58.65%  56.25%   2.40% { KdQs }
SB     21.60%  20.38%   1.22% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
BB     19.75%  18.37%   1.38% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Is this wrong ? This is obviously cold figures, and the action from what look like one, possibly two passive players on the river is pretty much showing I'm toast.

Well ranges change during hand... for example you put 77 in BUs range(which is fine obv) but when he 3bets flop this is not rly a reasonable hand for him to have anymore. I would say that you gave BB way too tight preflop range.He is in BB getting great odds to call so I would say he is defending at least 70% of hands and probably even 90%.

SB is a bad player and you have only 8 hands on him so its hard to say but I would certainly give him a slightly wider range.I would put in many hands that ppl like to play( suited connectors,Ax,broadways,pockets,connector and prolly reduce K6o and stuff like that. I would also not inculde top 5% of his range since I would assume he 3bets those.

Now try to do the math again

On the river you have a bluff catcher. In terms of balance, the SB should, in heads-up play, bluff something like 7-8%. He should bluff much less 3-ways, but I haven't done the math there.

Now the BB raises. He is raising three-handed. I'd say the chances that both are bluffing are somewhere in the neighborhood of 1% (but haven't done the math here either).

As i opened the thread. First thought that came to my mind : Cap Flop! Your kicker is decent and as dawnfall correctly figured out... there a just a few hands you're beaten by and enough hands you still beat. KJ J9, 89 87 with Flushdraw, Q with worse Kicker etc etc. BB would have prolly reraised Preflop with hands like medium up to high pocketpairs like TT+ and also with AQ he'd raised pre.

Considered the odds preflop, he can easily have a lot of Qx with worse kicker and unlikely but possible though => you might kick SB off a gutshot or Tx type of hands and make him fold a decent amount of Equity. Decent because the pot has already grown so big.

79 or J9 became quite likely after SB coldcalled Preflop, he coldcalled the Flop and then checkraised the Turn but though i wouldnt have folded my hand on the turn as you correctly didnt do. Call and for another Bet also calling the River is fine. You didnt pick any information about SB yet so he might go crazy with some worse hand.

River is an easy fold. you dont have to do the math but i can simply tell you from my experience that if you cumulate the chance of being still ahead against both, you'll end up seing a poor figure of a few percent, not making your call worthwhile by far. Normally if somebody raises the River 3handed, he does always beat 1 hand like 1pair.

Hi All,

Many thanks for all the feedback - and apologies for being such a n00b. Of course equity changes during a hand - I thought I knew that....

OK, so trying to get better at this here's my revised maths.

As per Dawnfall suggests, SB not 3betting but with wider range, and being conservative re BB range I think maybe this :

Board: T♠6♠Q♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     62.51%  60.88%   1.63% { KdQs }
SB     20.67%  19.32%   1.36% { 77-55, ATs-A2s, KJs-K5s, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo-A7o, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BB     16.81%  15.94%   0.87% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 65o }

So on the flop the BB donk bets, so I guess mid pair decent kicker or better for him - the fast play would maybe make me think he isn't on a draw and is trying to protect his hand on such a wet board. SB calls two cold, so I'd put him on a draw or mid pair decent kicker too.

On the turn this gives me:

Board: T♠6♠Q♣ 8♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     27.58%  26.83%   0.75% { KdQs }
SB     52.88%  52.52%   0.35% { A9s, KJs, K9s, Q9s, J9s, 98s, KJo, J9o }
BB     19.54%  18.44%   1.11% { TT+, 66, AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, Q2s+, JTs, T6s, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, Q3o+, JTo, T6o }

Ouch. This would account for action from SB. On the river with the BB raising the SB bet I'll narrow BB down to trips or better :

Board: T♠6♠Q♣ 8♥ 8♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO      0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { KdQs }
SB      0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { KJs, J9s, 98s, KJo, J9o, 98o }
BB    100.00% 100.00%   0.00% { QQ, TT, 66, Q8s, Q8o }

So yes, I think I should have folded after SB raise on turn. River I was completely dead.

I'll get my coat.......