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NL100 PF BB 98o, river decision

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alphamonkey
Joined: 27.12.2013

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
CO: $164.88 (164.9 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9♣ 8♥
CO folds, BTN raises to $2.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.50) T♦ Q♠ J♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.15, Hero raises to $10.25, BTN calls $7.10

Turn: ($26) 7♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $17.50, BTN calls $17.50

River: ($61) J♥ (2 players)
Hero ???

Villain regular, 11k hands. ( No dynamic , No history)

27/20/8

OR BU 53%

WTSD 28%

What do you think about river ? (x/call, x/fold, bet )

If we bet, what size ?

thanks !!!


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

why don't you try coming up with a reasonable range for him on the River? then we measure our equity edge against his river range (NOT river calling range) and decide on a bet size.

76% = 50% pot bet
<65% = check
85% = pot size bet

if we check we probably c/f unless you think he turns a hand like T9/KT into a bluff enough of the time.


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alphamonkey
Joined: 27.12.2013

I think his range on the river will be:

KQ, AQ, AK, K9, Q9, Q8, QJ, QT, JT, TT, QQ, AA, KK, 98,

I put this range in equilab, and our equity is 57%.

About KT and T9, Do you think is better cbet these hands than check back ?

thanks !


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