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NL25 AK FD turn ch/shove in 3b pot

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BotiaKiraly
Joined: 18.03.2009

http://weaktight.com/7021337

After 80 hands he is pretty aggro OTT, and has a low WTSD.

But regardless of that his range is mostly 99-JJ, some worse FDs, so I have good equity if he calls + I probably have FE as well.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

This isn't a good spot to pull off a turn CR. Here are the conditions

1. Bets a lot when checked to on the turn (>70%) - use stats and board texture to guess this
2. Will bet/fold a lot.

Here I don't think he bets all that much, and when he bets he either has 7X or some pair+OESD that will bet/call. If he bets with 99 I'm not too sure how often he's folding to a raise.

2nd or 3rd pair will likely check back on the turn. It's better on boards where he is expected to have a ton of straight draws which will bluff the turn.


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BotiaKiraly
Joined: 18.03.2009

I don't think he has 7x in his range, what 7x calls a big sqz like that?

I probably have a bit of fold equity and I have 45% equity against his overpair range so this is almost a value raise :P


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