After 80 hands he is pretty aggro OTT, and has a low WTSD.
But regardless of that his range is mostly 99-JJ, some worse FDs, so I have good equity if he calls + I probably have FE as well.
After 80 hands he is pretty aggro OTT, and has a low WTSD.
But regardless of that his range is mostly 99-JJ, some worse FDs, so I have good equity if he calls + I probably have FE as well.
This isn't a good spot to pull off a turn CR. Here are the conditions
1. Bets a lot when checked to on the turn (>70%) - use stats and board texture to guess this
2. Will bet/fold a lot.
Here I don't think he bets all that much, and when he bets he either has 7X or some pair+OESD that will bet/call. If he bets with 99 I'm not too sure how often he's folding to a raise.
2nd or 3rd pair will likely check back on the turn. It's better on boards where he is expected to have a ton of straight draws which will bluff the turn.
I don't think he has 7x in his range, what 7x calls a big sqz like that?
I probably have a bit of fold equity and I have 45% equity against his overpair range so this is almost a value raise