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Flopped set facing maniac

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Hi,

Curious to other people's opinions. Villain looks like a maniac so far, with VPIP 29, PFR 29 and 3-bet at 40%. Very small sample size though at 18 hands.

File: HH20141230 McNaught - $0.01-$0.02 - USD No Limit Hold'em_4.txt
PokerStars Zoom Hand #127758041314:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2014/12/30 19:23:03 CET [2014/12/30 13:23:03 ET]
Table 'McNaught' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: S1 ($4.31 in chips) 
Seat 2: S2 ($0.77 in chips) 
Seat 3: S3 ($1.62 in chips) 
Seat 4: S4 ($9.06 in chips) 
Seat 5: S5 ($5.34 in chips) 
Seat 6: S6 ($1.46 in chips) 
Seat 7: S7 ($1.61 in chips) 
Seat 8: Minoepoe ($10.25 in chips) 
Seat 9: Button ($1.67 in chips) 
SB: posts small blind $0.01
BB: posts big blind $0.02
 HOLE CARDS 
Dealt to Minoepoe[7d 7c]
1: folds 
2: folds 
3: folds 
4: raises $0.02 to $0.04
Minoepoe: calls $0.04
5: folds 
Button: raises $0.14 to $0.18
SB: folds 
BB: folds 
4: folds 
Minoepoe: calls $0.14
 FLOP  [Kh 3h 7h]
Minoepoe: checks 
BTN: bets $0.26
Minoepoe: raises $0.93 to $1.19
BTN: raises $2.94 to $4.13 and is all-in
Minoepoe: ??

My raise on the flop was a stupid amount obviously. I was hoping to snuff out a drawing hand but looking back that's a bit of a silly raise. Anyway,
I virtually cheered when he shoved and almost snap-called here. His stats made him look very loose, with a 3-bet of 40% and him being on the button, but I still don't put him on air here as he has to know we might call. It's 2.94 to call into a pot of 5.75, so we need to win less than half of the time to make this a profitable call.

If we put villain on a flush, I'm at 35% to win. If he has put him on any pair with the ace of hearts, I'm 70% to win. If villain has KK, he has us crushed.
What is our move here?

Spoiler

Villain showed KK for set over set. I think I'm still happy with my play, but this was the bitter end to a great upswing of 8 buyins in 60 minutes, and as with any big pot I have to evaluate afterwards. Obviously if the flop had more than 1 suit this would've been an easy call, and with a tighter villain I could've gotten away from it. I'm just wondering with 3 hearts on the flop, could we get away from this hand?


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2 replies
wg123
Joined: 05.05.2014

Hi,
18 hands is too small sample to make any conclusions and this guy may turn out to be nit when you collect more hands. Anyway 29/29 after a measurable sample doesn't mean that he's a maniac. I'd rather call him a LAG.
I don't think that one should ever fold second set on the flop on NL2 as you can face many worse hands here (33, K+hearts,AA) and even if you play against flush you have many outs so I believe that jam is optimal here.
Good Luck :f_drink:


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Fronzelneekburm
Joined: 08.10.2013

As wg123 said it, don't fold second set on the flop, you'll see people play so many worse hands here aggressively. So: Nice hand, bad luck.


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