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2€ 6max JJ flops top set

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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

BB 39/5 3bet 0 - 38 hands
BU 50/13 3bet 0 - 57 hands

BB had OL/raised before and I had been active recently with my big stack, the last orbit I had 3bet from the SB after BU raised 2X.

After he OL/ raises I put him on a monster QQ+ & AK. I know I'm ahead on the flop, obviously, but once the Q comes what do I do?
On the turn I'm 44% against QQ+ & AK, can I ever fold?

Pacific, $1.80 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 17,016 (56.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 28,503 (95 bb)
MP: 16,246 (54.2 bb)
CO: 10,360 (34.5 bb)
BTN: 17,756 (59.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
MP calls 300, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to 1,086, MP raises to 3,758, SB folds, Hero calls 2,672

Flop: (8,016) 3 J T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (8,016) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 8,016, Hero raises to 24,705 and is all-in, MP calls 4,432 and is all-in

River: (32,912) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

32,912 pot
Final Board: 3 J T Q 5
Hero showed J J and lost (-16,246 net)
MP showed A K and won 32,912 (16,666 net)


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6 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Looks like you playing in the BB here. So I expect the BB stats are SB stats.
If you put the MP player on a range of QQ+ and AK you call only for set value pre-flop and the BB has only 12k behind. So you don’t get the implied odds to call for a set and I would fold pre-flop already against him.

Turn I would bet myself between 3,5k and 4k and call a possible shove as well. As played I would stack off as well with middle set.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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alenstrat
Joined: 13.03.2009

The big mistake is obviously not betting on the flop, you were letting AK stay in the hand for free, when AK was probably folding. Anyway, I'm putting his range at KK or AA with that tricky preflop move. Calling his reraise and waiting to see what he does post flop isn't a bad option but folding might have been slighly better. But given his "tricky" preflop play, he might check behind the nuts postflop if you don't bet and let you see free cards, that's why I say calling and seeing what he does postflop isn't that bad. As played, you definitely want the money in on that flop. Major mistake not betting there.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would newer lead on a pretty dry board against the pre-flop aggressor in a HU situation.
His range is pretty much over pairs here and I expect he will continue to bet there. Only AK checks most likely behind.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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alenstrat
Joined: 13.03.2009

Originally posted by SDK1987
I would newer lead on a pretty dry board against the pre-flop aggressor in a HU situation.
His range is pretty much over pairs here and I expect he will continue to bet there. Only AK checks most likely behind.

Cheers,
SDK1987

He has the nuts on the flop, I think we want villains overpair to reraise us on the flop and get the money in and get him to fold his weak draws ie AK. Why on earth wouldn't he lead out with nuts on the flop and villain probably having overpair w which he's probably willing to go broke? I don't think villain is going to get scared and fold his overpair because we lead out. On the other hand the check call line will get him suspicious we hit trips and give him the option to control de pot checking behind on one or several streets.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Don’t forget AK has only 4 outs to win on the flop and it’s still possible to get some value from him if you check the flop and he makes a Cbet and a over pair will stack off anyway if you check/shove on flop.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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slippyjim
Joined: 07.10.2011

Originally posted by SDK1987
Don’t forget AK has only 4 outs to win on the flop and it’s still possible to get some value from him if you check the flop and he makes a Cbet and a over pair will stack off anyway if you check/shove on flop.

Cheers,
SDK1987

That was my plan, to check/raise the flop, I didnt want to lead as my hand is super strong right now and I didnt want to blow him out the pot


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