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AKo in Squeezed Pot vs. tighter player

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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $25.00 (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.99, Hands: 796)
Hero (SB): $45.21
BB: $53.51 (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 54)
UTG: $26.93 (VPIP: 23.71, PFR: 19.40, 3Bet Preflop: 11.70, Hands: 237)
MP: $25.60 (VPIP: 15.02, PFR: 13.92, 3Bet Preflop: 9.00, Hands: 287)
CO: $58.84 (VPIP: 24.36, PFR: 20.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.91, Hands: 363)

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K♦ A♣

fold, MP raises to $0.62, CO calls $0.62, BTN calls $0.62, Hero raises to $3.40, fold, MP calls $2.78, fold, fold

Flop: ($8.29, 2 players) Q♣ 6♠ 6♣
Hero bets $4.00, MP calls $4.00

Turn: ($16.29, 2 players) 3♣
Hero bets $15.56, MP raises to $18.20 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.64

River: ($52.69, 2 players) T♦

Revelant stats on villain:
RFI MP: 13%
Ft3bet overall: 25%
Notes: Called 3bets ip with TT, AQs
Ft cbet flop in 3bet pots: 2/3

In this hand I am squeezing 3 opponents. Pretty standard. Now MP calls, and I would assign him a range of
99-JJ (18 combos)
AQ (9 combos incl. card removal)
sometimes QQ or AK, let's say half of the time (50% AK: 4 combos, QQ: maybe 2 combos, = 6)

My plan was to cbet and give up on any non- :club: , or even A, and barrell off big if a club hits to maximize my foldequity vs his pockets and call of a jam because of the re-draw. OTT we need 50% foldequity the way I played it, plus equity to the redraw it will probably get down to 32-34%.

He has 33 combos the way I assigned his range.
18/33 fold, that's already more than 50%.

So, I guess my play was mathematically correct. What do you guys think about the range I gave him and the overall idea of the way I played?


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5 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Look at this guy's stats, his bloody nit. Spare yourself that cbet otf and will be ok.


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srna10
Joined: 17.12.2010

I would add QQ and AK to villain calling range something like this QQ-99, AK, AQs. I don't think that kind of play suits this villain.
Personally, I'd x/c flop and fold to bet OTT, so call me tight fish :f_biggrin:


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

I'd agree with the others here. I can't see any value for betting flop here against this particular guy.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Agree. Vs this villain xc flop is better. And if the flop goes x-x we can bet turn and maybe river?


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duder1n0
Joined: 07.07.2009

Squeeze size is way too big against a 100bb opener, I'd raise to ~2.8$.

As played flop cbet size is way too big, leaves you to a bad SPR on the turn (not really a 2-street, nor a 3-street betting plan). I'd cbet ~2.5$, plan to continue only on turns I improve.


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