Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

Big draw AI OTF, +EV?

9 Posts
8 Users
0 Reactions
856 Views
vikopiko
Joined: 12.11.2014

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.34, PFR: 18.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.13, Hands: 432)
SB: 281.1 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 130.4 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 18)
UTG: 103.4 BB (VPIP: 34.55, PFR: 25.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 27.03, PFR: 24.32, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 37)
Hero (CO): 171 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ J♣

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 7♣ 8♣ T♠
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 7.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 18 BB, BTN raises to 52.5 BB, Hero raises to 168 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 44.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (204.5 BB, 2 players) 9♦

River: (204.5 BB, 2 players) 2♣
Players agreed to run it twice.

Turn #2: (204.5 BB, 2 players) 4♥

River #2: (204.5 BB, 2 players) 3♣

Hero shows A♣ J♣ (Flush, Ace High)
Board #1 (Pre 70%, Flop 41%, Turn 60%)
(Flush, Ace High)
Board #2 (Pre 74%, Flop 37%, Turn 20%)

BTN shows J♠ 9♠ (Straight, Jack High)
Board #1 (Pre 30%, Flop 59%, Turn 40%)
(Straight, Jack High)
Board #2 (Pre 26%, Flop 63%, Turn 80%)

Hero wins 97.7 BB
Hero wins 97.6 BB

PF imo standard call. OTF x/r because i think BTN can sometimes bet OC/OESD/FD to push us out + I have big EQ if called. After his RR I give him sets/OESD/FD (didnt give him made str8 - misstake?). I can not fold since odds are OK, so I go AI. I was lucky, but I am not sure if I played it well.

Thanks for comments guys!


Reply
Quote
8 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would most likely call the flop, because we are still drawing and we don’t want to blow up the pot. Also he’s betting in to 2 players and I don’t think he will do that with a kind of draw, but with top pair or better.

Cheers,
SDK1987


Reply
Quote
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Didn't you overplay your fd a little?


Reply
Quote
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

One option how to play this would be leading OTF? I also like check call. I don't completely hate your check raise but you should fold this hand vs 3bet. FD+gutshot is good but I think only FD+OESD has enough equity to go broke.


Reply
Quote
Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

We have around 42% equity (against TT-AA, J9, and sets). I like call beter here. I agree with la55i, that I wouldn´t feel comfortable either going AI with gutshot and FD, OESD+FD would be much better.


Reply
Quote
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I calculated it and we would have slightly +EV shove if we would have 44% equity (assuming we have 0 fold equity). But I think even that 42% is a bit too optimistic since usually flop 3bets are at least sets+.


Reply
Quote
MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

I'm also in for just calling. Of course he can bet gutshots and stuff, but we are still ahead of them! On a flop like that people don't cbet light usually, therefore I don't expect a lot of foldequity by worse.


Reply
Quote
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

No disaster. You can't have a nuts-only x/r range either. With which hands to bluff is up to you. After initial x/r, it looks like mathematical auto-play.


Reply
Quote
oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

I think that c/c-ing is probably best on the flop for a few reasons after you check: It's extremely multiway and it's a board texture that connects well with their range. After UTG checks, I think that I would probably bet the flop in general.

As played, it's a fine GII spot, there are worse flush draws and combo draws we beat.


Reply
Quote