Villain is a relative unknown
Preflop: Think villain is calling something like 77+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo.
Flop: Think villain check calls something like: 77+,ATs+,QJs,AJo+ and I'm way ahead vs this range. This would still be a bet/fold for me though don't think villain would check raise bluff me and I would expect them to just be overplaying 2pr+ even on such a dry board
Turn: At the time it was between bet/folding about 1/2 pot again or checking behind. At the time I thought that villain could have called 3-bets OOP with some suited Ax and suited connectors (but even against something like : 77+,A5s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo I am still crushing villain), so I guess I should be value betting, even considering bet/calling?
as played...
River: I think villain would lead TP+ here, as a default I would not expect villain to call a 3b OOP x/c the flop and lead the river as a bluff. Villain can obviously be betting some worse hands since the turn went check,check. I would expect villain to be doing this with something like (Based on my previous assumptions about villains' range):
Spoiler
Board: 6♦8♥A♣ 9♦ 5♠
Equity Win Tie
CO 57.14% 51.02% 6.12% { 77, AdAh, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, 8d8s, 8d8c, 8s8c, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, AdJd, AhJh, AdTd, AhTh, Ah9h, Ad8d, 9s8s, 9c8c, Ad7d, Ah7h, 8d7d, 8s7s, 8c7c, Ah6h, Ad5d, Ah5h, AdKh, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc }
BU 42.86% 36.73% 6.12% { AsKs }
given this price we are getting we need approx 30% equity to break even if we call and we have 42% vs the above range, therefore we should call right?
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): $6.40
SB: $10.76 (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 21.79, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 80)
BB: $10.20 (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 118)
UTG: $11.04 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
MP: $11.32 (VPIP: 15.58, PFR: 11.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.69, Hands: 158)
CO: $13.33 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♠ K♠
fold, fold, CO raises to $0.12, Hero raises to $0.45, fold, fold, CO calls $0.33
Flop: ($0.97, 2 players) 6♦ 8♥ A♣
CO checks, Hero bets $0.47, CO calls $0.47
Turn: ($1.91, 2 players) 9♦
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($1.91, 2 players) 5♠
CO bets $1.37, fold
CO wins $1.83
