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$5.50 6MAX Turbo QJo

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kivanov1989
Joined: 14.01.2017

partypoker - 100/200 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 17.62 BB (VPIP: 17.47, PFR: 15.03, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 509)
BB: 13.39 BB (VPIP: 22.11, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.60, Hands: 300)
Hero (BTN): 14 BB

3 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.88 BB) Hero has J♦ Q♠

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.88 BB, 2 players) 9♠ 4♣ Q♣
BB bets 11.26 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 11.26 BB

Turn: (27.4 BB, 2 players) A♥

River: (27.4 BB, 2 players) 4♠

I don't think villain will over bet shove with made hand. It is most likely draw. Can we find a fold here, considering that we are at the bubble?


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3 replies
JKV89
Joined: 05.03.2017

I think yes. Fold it


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Okkernootje
Joined: 02.09.2013

Let's construct a range for villain, plug it in an ICM calculator and show the results.

No other reads or (timing) tells?

First, figuring out a range. I don't think villain has a lot of trash on the stone bubble. Don't think he will slowplay monsters very often. I'd even expect him to shove any decent other hand (like good broadways, good aces). So in general his range consist of hands that aren't strong enough to shove, but are strong enough to justify a call. Hands like JT, A4o, Q8s. Maybe you can try to expand this range?

Next, with what part of that range would villain donkshove? Unlike what you said, I see this a lot with top pair hands too. So (straight/flush)draws, strange two pair hands and top pair (probably weak kicker) hands.

Now calculate!


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

This is a nasty ICM spot on the flop for sure, but most of the time I don’t have a min raise range preflop with a 14bb stack. I would earlier shove and get maximum fold equity pre-flop. Then you don’t get in awkward post-flop situations like this. Now I would fold this hand for sure, because you are or slight in front against draws or far behind against better top pair hands or 2 pair+ hands.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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