Ugly river decision with set vs raise

I would probably call but not sure if it is the right decision. I would probably look for some "tells" like his reaction time in seconds in all streets to get a feeling of what was he expecting but to be honest it is a close decision.
By the way why don't you raise the flop? I consider that a great board to raise with J J .

Originally posted by GleDi713
I would probably call but not sure if it is the right decision. I would probably look for some "tells" like his reaction time in seconds in all streets to get a feeling of what was he expecting but to be honest it is a close decision.

Agreed. Of course it is a close decision because if it wasn't I wouldn't have put it in here

Originally posted by GleDi713
By the way why don't you raise the flop? I consider that a great board to raise with J J .

You mean donking the flop? Because I can't raise if he checks the flop behind So probably you meant donking .... Somehow I don't like it, but ok, it's a flop which many people don't cbet. But what if he calls you, do you then keep on barreling? Anyway, I somehow don't like donking. If he checks behind, he mostly has Ahigh, then you can bet on the turn and have an easier play imo. Meanings?

You mean donking the flop?

Yeah! I like that play on that board. It gives you a ton of information about his hand and also cuts his odds if his on a draw.
I

But what if he calls you, do you then keep on barreling?

On the turn you either make a big raise and get prepared to go to the end or raise somewhat smaller and decide in your head to fold if the straght completes. The second option is trickier and harder to calculate, so let's go with the first.
if you had raised the flop the pot would be 0.28$ by the turn. If you raised pot-size there, the villain would have to call 0.28$ to win a maximum of 2.7$ (the shortest stack). So he is about 9 to 1 on his money and getting 4.8 to 1 to complete his open-ended straight draw. So a pot-sized bet wouldn't be enough for an open ended straight draw.If you are putting him on that a lot of the time you would have to raise at least double the pot 0.6$ if you are prepared to play to the end and expect a profit in the long run.

The way I like to approach these situations is , I have a devised rules I try to follow i.e. my set vs a wet board I have pre decided on a limit of how much I am prepared to wager/lose, so If the bet I need to call or raise is more than that number I try to remember to fold. I may lose a few pots I may have won but I think since I started doing this I avoided being potted many more times.
Thanks
tmannie