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9's ~ value betting

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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $39.44 (VPIP: 32.59, PFR: 16.30, 3Bet Preflop: 7.84, Hands: 138)
SB: $13.79 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: $25.44 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 14.93, 3Bet Preflop: 6.93, Hands: 279)
Hero (MP): $30.01
CO: $29.82 (VPIP: 26.87, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 68)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9♣ 9♦

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, fold, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.00, 4 players) 9♠ Q♦ 4♣
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.91, CO calls $1.91, SB calls $1.91, fold

Turn: ($8.73, 3 players) K♥
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50, fold

River: ($15.73, 2 players) 3♣
Hero bets $10.50, CO calls $10.50

Spoiler

Hero shows 9♣ 9♦ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 19%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
CO mucks A♠ A♣ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 81%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins $35.08

So pretty bad turn and I had no time bank.
Obviously feeling good on the river as no turn raise, thoughts on sizing ?


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9 replies
MatoStar
Joined: 22.07.2017

OTF I would choose smaller sizing, because we are MW, flop is dry so don't see any reason to bet so bigger. I would bet something like 1/3 of pot, because then he can call many worse hands, some middle pairs,weak top pairs... OTT I would usually bomb after 1/3 cbet I would bet close to pot and prepare shove OTR and if he would raise OTT I think you should call, because he also have 44 and JTs is only 4combos and probably KQ. And OTR I would shove and go for max value from KQ,44 and some random hands.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

OTF board is not dry and we can bet $2. Especially when mw.
OTTwe can bet bigger.


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sdf256
Joined: 21.07.2016

OTF I would prefer 1/2, but it's not a mistake to bet 2/3 especially in a 4way pot.
Definitely bet bigger on the turn.


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

agree bigger turn bet needed. it would give you that chance if you get rears to put it all in.


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Marc4468
Joined: 17.12.2006

Originally posted by MatoStar
OTF I would choose smaller sizing, because we are MW, flop is dry so don't see any reason to bet so bigger.

I don't see the connection between mw-pot and no need to bet big:f_confused:
I like the betsize, because the board isn't that dry, that there would be no need to protect. Furthermore i see some Hands in Villains Ranges calling a 2/3 potsize-bet.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Ok so we bet bigger on the turn...

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $39.44 (VPIP: 32.59, PFR: 16.30, 3Bet Preflop: 7.84, Hands: 138)
SB: $13.79 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: $25.44 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 14.93, 3Bet Preflop: 6.93, Hands: 279)
Hero (MP): $30.01
CO: $29.82 (VPIP: 26.87, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 68)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9♣ 9♦

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, fold, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.00, 4 players) 9♠ Q♦ 4♣
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.91, CO calls $1.91, SB calls $1.91, fold

Turn: ($8.73, 3 players) K♥
SB checks, Hero bets $6, CO raises $13.50,

...?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Will you fold a set here????


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

I don’t think I could fold in that hypothetical spot. He could definitely raise that turn with KQ, of which there are more combinations than JTs. I think I would call such a raise, because I don’t think KQ or worse would call a 3-bet from us.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Originally posted by lfcmichael
I don’t think I could fold in that hypothetical spot. He could definitely raise that turn with KQ, of which there are more combinations than JTs. I think I would call such a raise, because I don’t think KQ or worse would call a 3-bet from us.

.. and see a 8 / 10 / J / A fall? Rather ship then call

Originally posted by nitrol
Will you fold a set here????

I'm not sure if people would raise 2pair+ here. We're dead to higher sets and a straight. Not sure how bad a fold would be here vs a nutted range


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