RIVER BLUFF VS FACE UP 2ND PAIR???

What hands do you think he will donk here ? You can raise here i think on the flop, he will have trash or draws most of the time.

he is obv a station and you should never bluff

Originally posted by EnjoyYourWipeouts
he is obv a station and you should never bluff

:transpire::transpire::transpire:

My read is that these donks are rarely very strong. They are some mid strength hands. Weak Qx would be a hand that I assume villain has quite often. I think calling with a gutter might not be the best move. What do you think about raising? He is scared of a J and will fold

Could overbet the river to actually get him to fold a Q and an A as he hasn't raised. But think fine as played, coach. ;P

I think raising is okay
The problem I have is - do you really barrel rag turns when you do raise?
He'll flat A high and win heh

Where when I flat I can attack his checks, small bets, or when good cards fall for me

This was an on-stream hand, I called his hand before I bet, and of course we got snapped by it (a random Queen haha)

I like the size in my games just to rep Aces as well here

But at NL5 thinking longer and just betting bigger and just make it too big for him to call a Q "because it's big" will probably be better

Perhaps you can call the gutshot otf. And perhaps you can bet ott. But after his turn call, you cannot bet the river. This is NL5, you have no reads, and when you play NL5 regularly for coaching and do not know that guy, he is the recreational player or how those water animals are called today. His flop donk MIGHT be a bluff (but with less than 10% probability), but his turn call surely is no bluff. He has anything, perhaps as low as deuces, but he will not let go. He will not know that you intended to represent something. He just sees one pair, and he will call. In my opinion, a balanced bluffing range on NL5 against unknown is a sure method for burning money. You have to do this against regulars, of course, and i was told that on higher stakes you can make such plays against random players. But on NL5, in my little experience, fishes fold to much only preflop and otf. After flop, they will seldom fold.

Hi LemOn36

First of all thank you for your twitch streams. I enjoyed it yesterday.
Here my analysis.

I think for a bluff at 5NL your turn bet is too small.
He's scared but when you bet 1/3d pot he thinks you're bluffing (the turn).
Then with the blank on the river he can not fold anything anymore.
I think the (5NL) mistake here is the 'too small' turn bet.

That's my 5NL wisdom.

The population reads when we know nothing about him, except saw him donking in a HU pot are:
a) he is probably a fish
b) he doesn't have a monster, but have a showdown value hand like Qx, TT-22, Ax

Our equity vs his likelly range is 25%, we have position on him and since he is most likelly a fish, we have solid implied odds in case we hit our gutshot. So calling the flop is fine, imo. Nevertheless, I think raising is a bit better because he can fold alot of better hands (Ax, TT-22) + when we just call and he bets the turn, we will not be in a very good situation on most turn cards and will have to fold when he bets. If he calls our flop raise, I will just give up unimproved on later streets, except maybe on Ace, and don't bother about it because raising looks to me more +EV move than calling.

As played, I think betting the turn is fine because Ace is a scare card and he can now fold alot of those weak made hands, but I'd like a bigger bet. If he then calls, I would just give up unimproved on the river because I don't expect him to fold better hands often enough.

As played OTT, betting the river 70% is probably fine because he might now start to believe us that we really have an ace and fold everything worse than TP.

Im either raising the flop donk or folding, calling is a littel bit weaker.