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set facing river raise

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ferdhy5
Joined: 21.04.2014

888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 102.6 BB (VPIP: 32.54, PFR: 19.84, 3Bet Preflop: 1.79, Hands: 129)
Hero (BTN): 106.4 BB
SB: 96.6 BB (VPIP: 25.17, PFR: 17.01, 3Bet Preflop: 4.26, Hands: 151)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5♦ 5♠

Hero raises to 2.6 BB, fold, BB calls 1.6 BB

Flop: (5.6 BB, 2 players) 4♣ T♠ 8♥
BB checks, Hero bets 3.6 BB, BB calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (12.8 BB, 2 players) 5♥
BB checks, Hero bets 6.4 BB, BB calls 6.4 BB

River: (25.6 BB, 2 players) K♦
BB checks, Hero bets 17 BB, BB raises to 48 BB, Hero raises to 93.8 BB and is all-in, BB calls 42 BB and is all-in

BB wins 195.4 BB

Hi guys. I guess I could have bet bigger OTT. On the river I decided to fold. It may be rather nitty lately I but I doubted that villain is buffing or raising with worse. Lately I have played a few hads in which my set got beaten by a better one or a straight.
What do you think?


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3 replies
Bernasconi
Joined: 04.08.2006

I would have called in this spot.

Of course, it is not nice to face such a raise on the river here. He playes from BB and you raise only 2.6BB so he can have a wide range. He can have many two pairs like T4, T8, T5, K5, K4 etc. which you still beat with your set. He can also have 44, 88, TT and maybe slowplayed QQ, KK, AA which (except KK) you beat as well. He could also have 67 for the straight or do a crazy bluff there.

So you only lose against a better set, KK and 67 (straight). Board not paired, no flush possible. Of course, he can beat you sometimes with these hands but I would still call in this spot.

What do others think?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain could indeed raise a 2pair hand but very often river raises are just nuts and you should run for your life.

I wouldn't blame you if you fold here. But I would be very tempted to call. And then probably smash my head to the wall.

On the river I decided to fold.

To me it looks like you decided to 3bet shove. That I wouldn't have done.


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sdf256
Joined: 21.07.2016

I would call.

To me it looks like 2 pairs that he hit OTR with that K. Because I would expect sets to raise OTF/OTT, or occasionaly donk OTR (you know that call/call/donk line recs like to use with nuts), so it really does look like a 2pair hand in my opinion.

In fact, what hands beat you here? TT,88,KK,67. He might not even have TT,KK because those should be a 3bet preflop, but of course he could still have those. I would also expect those stronger hands to raise OTF/OTT, but it DOES NOT mean he cant have them. I just think he'll have them way less frequently than 2pairs.

And even if all my assumptions were wrong and he wouldn't have raised them earlier/donked OTR, so that means he would have every set possible/straight in his range now..Still if we assume his range consists of 2pairs,sets,straights (KK,TT,88,44,KTs,K8s,T8s,76s,KTo,T8o), then 2pairs are 55.6% of his range, that means we beat over half of his valuebetting range.


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