Tony's path from being nuts to being THE nuts [at various SNGs]

I just wanted to ask: Call with Q3 and J6? I don´t know the format so...... I´m just a bit surprised

Well, maybe those were a bit marginal and based rather on FGS than on immediate chip EV.

The factors shifting the decision towards the call are:

1. When N players stack off in the 1st hand, they're all eligible for (N-1) bounties, so the overlay is bigger relatively to the pot size when there are more players in the pot. The bottom 10-20% of hands (offsuit junk) are still folds because they have terrible equity in multiway pots, especially in the presence of pocket overpairs, and having a small kicker sucks because domination is possible, but the ranges are so wide that domination seems improbable enough, and also, hitting 2-pair or better is often enough to scoop the pot and the bounties.

I'd likely fold T6o, but with J6o, hitting a pair of jacks seems to often be enough to win a 3-4-way showdown.

2. Folding in the first hand leads to a miserable existence in the rest of the SNG because you'll be covering relatively few players, whereas opponents will be fighting for your bounty. In a non-hyper KO, it's profitable to wait for a good hand as a short stack to get it in with large equity.

However, in the first 6 minutes of a 36-man KO, the blinds double up every 2 minutes, and the antes are 1/5 of the bb, so waiting for a good hand to charge loose callers seems a losing strategy.

On the other hand, quadrupling up in the 1st hand seems to boost the expected $EV by more than 4 times because you'll get an opportunity to hunt bounties without risking a large portion of your stack (except when you have a similarly large-stacked opponent left in a hand, which is when you should be much more cautious).

In particular, I think limp/folding the 1st hand is an atrocious mistake in terms of future value.

But I agree that, when I get a large sample, it will be great to analyse for each starting holding whether stacking off with it in the 1st hand gives me a higher expected ROI than folding it; when I'm dealt junk in the 1st hand, both the conditional EV ROIs are certainly negative, but the former may be less negative and outweighed by those times when I get dealt a strong holding in the 1st hand vs the same wide ranges.

Ironically, I think K6o is probably an easier fold than J6o in the current games because, though I said the ranges are wide in the 1st hand, most opponents still stack off with ranges that are much narrower than 80% and quite Ax/Kx-heavy, so I'm rather worried about being dominated by Kx than by Jx.

Pretty every suited or connected (54o or better) hand is a snap-call if facing 2+ shoves in the 1st hand just due to the flush / straight equity.

However, I do need to ask an equity calculator about this to confirm my intuition.

Interesting .............:f_thumbsup:

Meh, I probably can't beat the super-KO MTSnGs for a higher hourly than 45-mans (or 9-man KOs) anyway without making a Hand2Note HUD. It would make a ton of difference because it's important to 1) calculate stats separately for when Villain covers Hero and for when Hero covers Villain, and also separately for the FT (determined by the sum of stack sizes), and 2) to display the HUD at the start of the 1st hand, as it's crucial to the ROI.

My last super-KO hand for this week, as well as the back-to-back hands of the day I've posted a bit earlier, shows how complex the shortstack FT play is in KOs. In what follows, I didn't have fold equity pre, so I flatted to keep MP's range wide, to avoid scaring the blinds away from committing their few remaining chips and to somewhat scare BTN away from hunting my and the blinds' bounties (as BTN was covered by MP, and it wasn't clear if I was going to stack off every time if BTN VPIPed and especially if the blinds made 'sadistic' folds denying us their bounties like some recs do against the pot odds in the hope that I stack off loosely and bust before them, and some even do way before the FT, surprisingly), and was a favourite to finish 4th (which would have happened if myself or MP had won the main pot).

PokerStars - 200/400 Ante 60 NL (7 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 2,260
BTN: 4,810
SB: 340
BB: 510
UTG: 4,680
MP: 5,400

6 players post ante of 60, SB posts SB 200, BB posts BB 400

Pre Flop: (pot: 960) Hero has Q♣ A♥

fold, MP raises to 1,200, Hero calls 1,200, fold, SB calls 80 and is all-in, BB calls 50 and is all-in

Flop: (3,490, 4 players) 4♥ 6♣ 9♣
MP bets 1,200, Hero calls 1,000 and is all-in

Tbh, I've already lost the count of the times when I decided to change my main game format in the past 30 days, perhaps 10-20 times back and forth The range of suspects is narrowing down, though, with regard to optimal formats to play with a $100 BR, but I'll have no idea what to do to maximise the growth rate if the BR grows beyond $300 (because of withdrawals, that won't be soon).

The dream is to intimidate regs at $10+ super-KOs and/or $15+ Spin Max with weird exploitative plays a la MachtiSonni

Just take you time to try out several formats. Try out and decide then. ♠_thumbsup:

Well, I can't evaluate a format on the first try; the process is like pulling the arms of a multi-armed bandit. In the process, I keep discovering tiny details that put me on tilt and then move on to a format where I seem to be in the zone a higher percentage of the time, then discover something unsettling about that one too, keep cycling between them and have no idea about when the search will converge.

Another variable in the equation is 6+ Holdem, which I expect to be +EV in the first couple of weeks because there are too few regs of the iPoker version of this game to make a big difference for the much larger expected Stars player pool.

That said, a more real profit opportunity will come up if Stars do decide to roll out 6+ HE MTTs, granting my request from Santa on Stars' Discord. So far, none of the innovative Stars CG formats (or, rather, CG fads) has been introduced into MTTs, which is disappointing because iPoker deployed 6+ MTTs almost immediately after 6+ CGs, and they were extremely soft.

For those about to MOSH*, we salute you!

* Use Collin's 4 commandments of mass multitabling (stack-and-tiling with FTs dragged out of the stack instead of purely stacking, though; the all-in sweat issue is fixed by modern hotkey tools' board hiding feature).

Following this night's session, I've come to the conclusion that my hourly won't drop much if I just stick to $0.5-1 45-mans where folding into the top 4 seems quite profitable (so lucrative that there's room for a table count increase), so I've withdrawn $80 and am going to bust the cashout curse myth once again with the remaining balance of $26.62

Nice blog. Keep up the good work!

Thanks for following!

In case you didn't know, the serious part of my poker career started with PLO, but I was a regfish at PLO20-50 My CG results were even worse at PLO8, partly because I was grinding for rakeback in tough fields, but ironically, most of my biggest non-freeroll MTT cashes (incl. a $27 Omania HU chop for a bit over $1K in late 2013 that came at the same night as a $300 HU chop in a Full Tilt $26) were actually at O8

I do find O8 much more suitable for MTTs than Omaha Hi.

I ran like the sun at NLO8 18-mans for a few weeks up to the day before yesterday (when I decided to quit while ahead after the last win), but my all-in EV says that I'm probably not more profitable there than at some 2-card games at those BIs where the hourly standard deviation is similar. That's because how bad I am at O8 - the 18-mans themselves are reasonably soft.

Perhaps I'll crush them in terms of EV too if I'm more mindful about range-vs-range ICM equity study, but the facts that the biggest BI is $3.50, and scheduled O8 MTTs only run twice an hour, are tipping my future career choice towards Spin & Go Max (or towards 18-man super-KOs if that doesn't work out).

At stakes higher than micro, I generally prefer unsolved games, where it's relatively easier to have an edge over most of the regs (but there's also more risk of remaining a breakeven regfish if you're not mindful, especially because of the high rake).

The reason why I prefer well-tested game formats at the micros is that all micros are still soft, and having a steady profit source available reduces anxiety. Once the bills are paid, I'll be able go buck wild

While Doyle Brunson's Super System clearly doesn't work anymore, Doyle's hand still does on a 45-man bubble when you've earned some credibility by having an RFI a bit less than 100% as the chipleader

PokerStars - 300/600 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 14,521 (VPIP: 27.37, PFR: 6.74, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 96)
UTG+1: 3,996 (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
Hero (MP): 19,181
MP+1: 8,975 (VPIP: 16.07, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 57)
CO: 322 (VPIP: 4.35, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
BTN: 8,264 (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 14.97, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 152)
SB: 9,011 (VPIP: 60.87, PFR: 45.45, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 23)
BB: 3,230 (VPIP: 19.32, PFR: 12.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 88)

8 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 300, BB posts BB 600

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,300) Hero has 2♠ T♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 19,131 and is all-in, fold, CO calls 272 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold

(CO had got sucked out on in the previous hand; I hadn't had such a good opportunity to pressure even the recs into submission at any previous time at that FT.)

As Phil aka 'Quadrophobia', an excellent researcher of PLO, once pointed out, when one of your stats is exactly 100% over a decent sample, the opponents are sure that your range is exactly 100%, but if the stat is less than 90%, they have doubts about how wide your range actually is.

My results aren't as nearly good as Angstzweet's :sorry:, but +$10 in a 40-minute session isn't a bad hourly rate either (lol at spinmax / 9-man KO variance). I'm still in the middle of an existential crisis, burst into tears yesterday during a meditation, so I err on the side of not committing to long sessions.

What relieves me a bit is that I know the grind won't be forever:

Don´t forget, besides beeing a good player there is always luck involved in the short term! You can be a great player but if you get suck out after suck out, loose your hands even though you get it in good and/or just no decent hand, hit no flop then you can be the greatest player, you won´t win.

My remark about the hourly was sarcastic, of course

I obviously know the concept of the EV (among the options with the same EV, I choose the one with the lowest variance) and realise I ran good, don't worry But I think there's too much focus on misluck, too much luckbox shaming, and not enough celebration of luck in the poker community

The EV is what dictates the choice of games as well as in-game actions. This choice must be detached from the results of the immediate past.

Just I thought it would be nice to remind the readers that, in games with wide ranges, suckouts aren't fishes' exclusive privilege - regs sometimes have to shove ATC and sometimes suck out.

What shall I do if an unlucky streak happens? Well, mass multitabling $0.25 45-mans is still easier than a real job in Eastern Europe, and going busto at them restarting with 60 BIs as a good player is less likely than a lot of real-life mishaps.

Speaking of: stop negative self-talk!!

Now that the Monte Carlo engine has been introduced into HRC :f_drink:, I'm going to analyse the previously posted 36-man SKO spots with FGS2 Originally posted by tonypmm

That was a spew (-0.12 BIs; 1% of table equity = 0.066 BIs in the screenshot) even in the Nash equilibrium and likely a bigger spew vs the population's tighter ranges. I used to overvalue offsuit disconnected high card hands. In pots that are likely to go multiway, suitedness and connectivity matter a ton more than high card strength, even though the stacks are short. Here are the Nash ranges (they're inaccurate in the Monte Carlo mode, especially the ones for 2nd and further overcalls, but I did resample the entire tree a bit - added 50M samples - and the subtree pertaining to my decision point - 500M):

Originally posted by tonypmm

Spoiler

A final table (the bubble has just burst):

PokerStars - 200/400 Ante 60 NL (7 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 5,330 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BTN: 530 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: -, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 4,400 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 1,610 (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 440 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (MP): 5,690

6 players post ante of 60, SB posts SB 200, BB posts BB 400

Pre Flop: (pot: 960) Hero has 7♣ 5♠

UTG calls 380 and is all-in, Hero raises to 5,630 and is all-in, fold, fold, SB calls 4,140 and is all-in, fold

Spoiler

UTG shows K♣ 8♠
SB shows K♠ A♠

Flop: (9,820, 3 players) 3♠ 7♦ 3♥

Turn: (9,820, 3 players) 7♥

River: (9,820, 3 players) 3♣

SB shows K♠ A♠ (Full House, Threes full of Sevens)

Main Pot [1,880]: (Pre 52%, Flop 23%, Turn 0%)
Side Pot#1 [7,940]: (Pre 62%, Flop 23%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows 7♣ 5♠ (Full House, Sevens full of Threes)

Main Pot [1,880]: (Pre 30%, Flop 65%, Turn 100%)
Side Pot#1 [7,940]: (Pre 38%, Flop 77%, Turn 100%)

UTG shows K♣ 8♠ (Full House, Threes full of Sevens)

Main Pot [1,880]: (Pre 18%, Flop 12%, Turn 0%)

Hero wins 9,820

Surprisingly, Hero's Nash range here is not ATC (rather, 80-90%), but 75o turns out a part of it. SB's range for overcalling surely includes AKo, though it has to be rather narrow because I'm covering him.

Hero's range turns out a bit narrower (75%) because of possible 2nd+ overcalls, but 75o is still a tiny bit +EV :f_biggrin:, and UTG's real range is likely not tighter than Nash because the K8o shown down is near the bottom of the fairly nontrivial Nash (merely 35% despite the threat of being blinded all-in the next hand).

The SB AKs overcall is +1.13% (+0.2 BIs). Here are the Nash ranges (50M samples for the main tree and UTG subtree, 200M for my decision, plus 100M for SB's one):

However, the least trivial finding is BTN's 17% range for calling the slightly covered UTG in the rare scenario when both Hero and CO fold, considering that SB then certainly overcalls with everything but 32o, BB makes the 2nd overcall (of UTG, BTN and SB) with 79%* or the 1st overcall with ATC if SB makes a spewy fold; as well as BTN's 19% range for overcalling UTG and Hero*. I'd certainly misplay the spot brutally in BTN's shoes.

* The reasoning behind these gives me strong Spin & Go Max vibes - because BB is the 2nd out of the 4 stacks in the all-in, he's more likely to be eliminated in 4th-5th than 6th if he loses the side pot to SB; likewise, BTN is unlikely to bust in 6th after overcalling UTG and either of Hero or CO.