25€ HUSNG 43o float

ok thats 25bb deep and you shive river if I read that correctly. Well the open is somewhat standard with no reads. He donks the flop which looks like a fish or ai recently because this flop is paired. You elect to peel the flop with just a gutter. This is resonable sometimes but imo its gets thinner on a paired board because villains are less likely to believe you to make floats work. This is imo especially true if its a paired ace. In my experience its easier for fish to know that paired boards with aces are not hit by anyone than other paired boards. If you try to range gus donkbets its likely consits of lots of fd some deuce and pockets maybe k high. he bets the turn again und as you may assumed since the board texture doesnt changed at that he is on a fd semi bluff. This is true most of the time but lately I see such bets also as value bets. The minbet flop and turn to bomb river. If you look at it from their perspektive regs will call minbets on turn and river most of the time with their trash just bevause they can. Regs assume then correctly it should be fd and hero call the river because they think villains range consits of enough bluffs. The problem here is that villains tend to just not bluffing many rivers. Nevertheless you decide to bluff him of his equity as you would do with your while range. your would raise nearly everthing on the turn because you want to build a pot. Your river shove follows that principle too. Everthing that made a nice value hand would shove the river to. The challenge you struggle with is if you have a value range what kinds of bluffs do have to choose in gto terms. casually you choose the top of your folding range or blockers to bluff river. In this hands you block the str8ts but not the flop fd which are indeed nice hands he could fold here to your non sd hand.
Imo this way of playing thus hand is totally fine vs a reg to be unexploitable but vs a fish I simply doubt that will work out enough. I the bad players call me with ten high here. The question you want to ask yourselfe here imo is do I have to play such a risky line without reads or do I find easier spots to extract value? Imo the answer is yes his lines indicates that he is a fish and therefore I would choose value lines that are exploitable and cut some of my semi bluffs and of course some bluffs too.

greets

maniac

I think a tricky move against most likely a weaker player to play like this. I expect he isn't folding to often on a blank river after the call on the turn, but it's always tough to say against a unknown.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Reasoning for play was these:

- Very few would donk bet like that with Ax or 22
- I have some outs with my gutshot and pair might be good also.
- I don't block any flush draw combos which is great for river shove.
- and I would play most of Ax+ and maybe some pockets like this for value (because I don't believe in Ax that much).

On flop I would have folded all 6-J high hands without flush draw. Called those gutshots, Ax, 22+, flush draws, K high and some of better Q high. So would not raise anything really.

On turn I would have called good amount of that range but raise some gutshots and made hands. Weakest Ax and some less vulnerable pockets would work as call also to have hands to call river big bet. But most Ax I would raise. Flush draws I would have probably just called all because raising and getting shoved on would be nasty. For gutshot that is not problem as it's easy to fold. Maybe raising some of 5d4d and call shove. Also those lowest flush draws would work for river bluff as blocking weakest of flush draw combos is less of a problem.

So when I get into river here most of my range is value hands because I would not always even play all of 43, 53, 54 combos or might limp some of them like suited ones to not get 3betted. In general I still want to have some bluffs for line like this and imo these gutshot combos without flush draw blocker are best ones. At least when we can't really block value hands.

Yeah villain donk betting flop is indication of fish but also it's rarely Ax so it's feasible line I would say.

Dear Ghale,

Imo you maybe miss one point. Your argumentation is based on a balanced range gto assumtion. You just want to do that if he is actually thinking and is able to fold. If I am not sure if he can lay down any kind of hand I would just bluff and semibluff std spots. If he tends to be tight passive I agree with your assumptions. we want to play super exploitive vs either of them (loose/tight/passive fish). Do you think your line fit in these terms? You build a pot with a bluff vs a fish. You don't know yet what kind of fish he is. If you hit he will pay you off anyway most of the time or he is tight passive but tight passive guys tend to fold to turn raises or they actually have something. The fact that he calls turn is an indication for me that he is on the loose passive side. If you dont hit you loose less this way. According to that I would not bluff this river because my early assumtions leads to a loose passive fish who is not folding until proven otherwise later in the match.

greets

maniac

I Would play the same as op or click back flop and give up if called.

Well as I pointed out above I dont believe villain often have Ax with this sort of line. Its often some flush draw, air or weak made hand. Well after villain bet-call turn we can usually discount air so its more like flush draw, 2x, 7x, some pockets and rarely Ax+ at that point.

In river flush draw bricks. Pot is around 850 and effective wise we have around 527 behind. So I need for my bluff to work 527 / (527+850) * 100 = 38.4% of time to be breakeven. Its pretty much impossible to define range for villain to start counting hand combos but if we get busted flush draws and some of those weak made hands to fold its +EV bluff in itself. Also even if villain does call bit too much its good to remember that my range will be making clear profit anyway. I wont personally bluff here with busted flush draws so bluff combos will be pretty limited.

Sure if I had seen him make some light calldown already I would probably not try play like this but to me its really not such bad spot when that flop play is already so rarely strong hand.