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KK overpair vs a river shove on a paired board

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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

PartyGaming - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 146.2 BB
SB: 101.8 BB
BB: 207.8 BB
UTG: 101 BB
MP: 100.4 BB
Hero (CO): 102.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ K♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, BTN calls 2.4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.2 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 6♦ 8♥
Hero bets 4.2 BB, BTN calls 4.2 BB

Turn: (14.6 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero bets 9.2 BB, BTN calls 9.2 BB

River: (33 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Hero bets 15.6 BB, BTN raises to 130.4 BB, Hero calls 71.2 BB

Spoiler

BTN shows T♦ J♥ (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens)
(Pre 16%, Flop 23%, Turn 20%)
Hero shows K♦ K♣ (Two Pair, Kings and Sevens)
(Pre 84%, Flop 77%, Turn 80%)
BTN wins 43.6 BB
Hero wins 196.4 BB

Villain has a label of a weaker player (open limps preflop, plays will less than full stack), but no stats. My logic was that hands that have us beat would raise the flop or turn, so decided to call down. Is this a spewy hero call that will not be profitable most of the time?


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3 replies
Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

I would have folded the river, he’s representing a 7 or a straight. Also don’t know if I Would go for 3 streets of value on that board versus BTN.


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DarkTunnel
Joined: 14.08.2013

What do you bet againts on the river? What or the hand you except to call and you beat?

Againts the raise. What bluffs you do you except him to have? (as you obviously have a bluffcather.)

On the river againts this raise I would fold as I dont see enough hands your opponent will bluff on this river. (most hand he calls twice will have SD value).

I would go for x/f to induce a bluff, and also lose the minimum againts slow played hands or something which got there on the river.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

tirm bet has to be bigger. river is either a block bet or a x/c


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