The fix is in. – Page 2

_Anonymous_ · 2011-05-06T23:06:53Z

Online poker is rigged. I say this as a statement of fact, one that is transparently obvious to anyone that's ever played online. "Really? Even the major sites like Poker Stars and Full Tilt?", you ask rhetorically. "Especially," I reply, and for the same reason. They all have the same business model and largely base their software on the same algorithms. Why am I writing this? Well, I figure I've wasted enough time on online poker to have a conclusive insight into the scam, and I feel that writing this is far more productive and socially beneficial than depositing any more money into some hucksters online Ponzi scheme. For some reason, any poker forum has aficionados that quickly come to the defence of these offshore commercial entities like they were damsels in distress. Their arguments are largely the same, so I'll rebut them, but first the primary point: The biggest contention of poker apologists is that poker sites lack the motive to screw their customers. That’s because these people are incredulous (not an uncommon trait), but also lack an understanding of the online poker business model. They think poker sites make their money off of rake, which is a half truth. If that were it, the argument from motive might hold some water. Even then you could never discount human greed and the desire to squeeze out an extra 20% in revenue. But the truth about how poker sites make money will make the rigging and the motivation for it apparent: deposits. Yup, you can deposit money into your poker account, never play a hand, and poker sites will be thrilled. That’s because you're giving them your money to do with as they will. Online poker is not a physical casino - your money is not sitting in a vault in the basement, its being used for financial investment and generating a return for the company, regardless of whether you play poker or not. So the motivation for online casinos is to keep as much money on deposit as possible, same as any bank. Hence the rigging model of online poker sites is something called "account churning". This means shuffling money between accounts without letting anyone get comfortable enough with their bankroll to cash out. If the motivation was simply to increase the rake, online poker sites wouldn't care too much about who wins the hand. If some dumbass wanted to ship it with Jack/Six off-suit after flopping middle pair, there'd be no motivation for poker sites not to let your Kings hold up. But any decent player knows that once the storm clouds move in you can do no right. Whatever game you play, you will lose. Consecutively. Until your bankroll is significantly eroded or gone. How they do this is variable: sometimes you'll be card dead for hours, finally flop top two and get called by a straight draw. Guess who wins. Then you'll flop a monster and get called by a two outer. Guess who wins. Then you'll hit a second nut flush on the turn with three of a suit on the board and get pushed in by the nut flush. Whatever the scenario, it will consistently go one way because the cause of it is account churning software designed to make sure people don't cash out and that new money is being deposited. When this software kicks in is variable. Without a window into the guts of the algorithm (whistle-blowers anyone?) the exact logic is unknown, but a common story is "I joined a site, made a bunch of money and then got screwed ever since my first cashout." Its plausible that sites use this as a "level" - the point at which a user is likely to cash out and hence the software activates sometime before they reach that mark. There’s no end to the behavioural analysis techniques they could use to maximise the money on deposit, but this article isn't an instruction set on how to beat a rigged system. My central point has been made. Now to the rebuttals. "It’s the variance man!/That’s poker!/You just can't handle the swings!/Etc." Firstly, anyone who uses the word "variance" as intellectual argument for why people get screwed in online poker is math illiterate. Variance is a much bigger problem in live games because you play fewer hands. A number of people will read that and experience an indefinable feeling that something in that sentence is wrong. That's because the common argument by poker site apologists is that variance is higher online. To be clear, variance is the difference between the expected result and the actual result. The greater the sample size of hands the more likely that the outcomes will conform to a normal distribution, and the variance will be less of a factor in the overall result. For the layman, try this: grab a physical deck and deal out a poker scenario, let's say 9/9 vs A/J rainbow preflop (55.72% vs 43.98% with a 0.3% chop). Now deal out five community cards and record the win/loss result. The first time you do this one of the hands will have ...

_Anonymous_

07.05.2011, 09:47 0

Originally posted by farbwenz
i completely agree with you. online poker is rigged.

That's why you should deposit as much money as u can afford, play for 2 months(or whatever you think is the time before u get doomswitched) and withdraw, deposit at the next poker platform. this way you would get your maximum boomswitch level. when you deposit all the money you won on the way, you have become a whale and don't need to care about statistics anymore.

There are maybe 30 bigger poker rooms, so it will take you 6 years to become a millionaire. better than university:D

that's the secret of Isildur1. Depositing few millions and getting doomswitched after!!!

_Anonymous_

09.05.2011, 06:30 0

Originally posted by conall88
@ontopic

"online poker is rigged"

Why does this graph read before 15/07/10 when this post is made 10 months later, id like to see the one that says "All Hands" pls....

Really well written piece OP and i will bet my life on it that some of your opinions are true, yet there is a few points that leave the door to open for tunnel visioned, nieve minds to come up with genuine re-buttals.

_Anonymous_

09.05.2011, 06:52 0

The argument of certified RNGs being in use is one thing that you did not mention, so i'll just throw it out there as it's always been one of my biggest ??? on the whole topic. Its always brought up in these type of discussions, that each sites RNG is certified by legit companies each and every month and this is true. Yet what proof do we have that this certified RNG is in play?? After each monthly review, it is not hard for "extras" to be written in to the RNG progam and then taken out at any given time. Let's face it, an auditer can't walk in and do any data analysis of numerous hands at any given time to check it against the certified system, can they?? A business that can not be properly audited, Livin The Dream Baby!

whipflip15

Joined: 25.11.2006

Posts: 284

09.05.2011, 09:01 0

It is just variance.

Where is you statistical evidence?

SilverSag

Joined: 12.07.2010

Posts: 512

09.05.2011, 12:14 0

There is one thing I have to say about this:

You have to a totally and absolutely naive (if not plain stupid) to believe that poker rooms have all this deposited money just laying around somewhere without being used.

I don't know what financial instruments they use and what loopholes they have found in the law, but I can bet everything I have and everything I will ever have that they are somehow making additional profit from that money. The question is not IF but HOW. Period.

Why do you think PS and FTP have delays in returning the money now? Too much internet traffic? Banks can't handle the transactions?

B U L L S H I T!

They just don't have the money available, because it is being used somewhere else. All we can do is pray that they are investing it somewhere safe...

♠ An Absolute (?) Beginner - My Poker Blog ♥

"It takes skill to be lucky"

_Anonymous_

09.05.2011, 17:20 0

Originally posted by SilverSag
There is one thing I have to say about this:

You have to a totally and absolutely naive (if not plain stupid) to believe that poker rooms have all this deposited money just laying around somewhere without being used.

I don't know what financial instruments they use and what loopholes they have found in the law, but I can bet everything I have and everything I will ever have that they are somehow making additional profit from that money. The question is not IF but HOW. Period.

Why do you think PS and FTP have delays in returning the money now? Too much internet traffic? Banks can't handle the transactions?

B U L L S H I T!

They just don't have the money available, because it is being used somewhere else. All we can do is pray that they are investing it somewhere safe...

that's ok for me, noone is investing that much money on anything. This probably means lower rake and bigger bonuses.

ronekinky

Joined: 25.04.2008

Posts: 518

09.05.2011, 18:51 0

I really dont want to think online poker is rigged. But i must admit that it would be nice to at least ONE FUKIN TIME have the best hand after the river when i have raised with a good hand and a fish calls oop with a 60% range. It really feels like something is wrong..

Im 99% sure they have rigged advantages because of their lack of IQ.

roopopper

Joined: 31.12.2010

Posts: 4,134

09.05.2011, 19:02 0

Originally posted by ronekinky
I really dont want to think online poker is rigged. But i must admit that it would be nice to at least ONE FUKIN TIME have the best hand after the river when i have raised with a good hand and a fish calls oop with a 60% range. It really feels like something is wrong..

Im 99% sure they have rigged advantages because of their lack of IQ.

HA !we get to the real root of the problem!!! lol I just had a fish to my right at nl25 I had aj, aj, 10 10 and guess what he stuffed me with trash hands on the river twice!!!!! I was about $10 dollars down! Then I had 99 and hit another 9 on the flop fish had k8 and a k on the flop we did some checking and raising type stuff and then he raised on the river with two pair (yep you guessed it 8 dropped in)I raised....he reraised and yep we are all-in!!

Result fish lost his stack

Be patient!!!!

.

Kruppe

Joined: 20.02.2008

Posts: 2,133

09.05.2011, 22:01 0

if it's transparently obvious, then you don't have to explain. so stfu

oh, and your arguments are bullshit

[Closed] The fix is in.