Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($184)
Hero ($407)
UTG ($195)
CO ($77)
BTN ($200)
Dealt to Hero J♣ A♣
fold, fold, BTN raises to $5, SB calls $4, Hero raises to $22, fold, SB calls $17
FLOP ($49) 8♦ K♦ J♦
SB bets $24, Hero folds
SB shows 7♥ 6♠
SB wins $47
Villan is 72/19 fish after 12 hands, 0 donkbets (2)
thoughts?
Nh imo.
His range for calling the openraise preflop can be superwide, but after he calls the squeeze it's generally a lot narrower - not necessarily very strong but at least not as weak as if he only called an openraise.
On the flop we have some SD-value and he might be bluffing, but then again he can probably do this with some Kx as well and additional to that if he has only 1 diamond he already has over 30% equity - and even if he doesn't have one, he has 11 outs for bluffingcards.
Furthermore we won't be able to bet for value at any point in the hand.
To sum it up we have a very weak bluffcatcher and even if the turn blanks we're folding to any more action.
Therefore I really dislike a call.
At the same time I'm not too much of a fan of turning our hand into a bluff either because there are still a lot of hands he's calling and we have the same problem as if we called - it's very hard to continue with the hand and we'll end up making costly mistakes when we try to bluff for stacks in a board where we might have close to 0% foldequity.
