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[Closed] $15, K5s on BB facing BU steal

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akrammon
Joined: 17.05.2009

Poker Stars $13.89+$1.11 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t25 - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: t3390 M = 5.90
CO: t3466 M = 6.03
BTN: t1424 M = 2.48
SB: t3799 M = 6.61
Hero (BB): t1421 M = 2.47

Pre Flop: (t575) Hero is BB with 5♥ K♥
2 folds, BTN raises to t1399 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t1096 all in

Villain is a reg, no conclusive sample. He's been very tight in the early phase, that's my only read.
According to Wiz, he needs to push 36% for this call to be fine. Is that a lot to ask? His nash range there is 37% so I'm really unsure about this. Thanks.

EDIT: I usually don't poast results but these might be important. So he showed 89o. If I set the bottom of his range to that, it's a snapcall, but many of these regs weigh there ranges to these connected hands, and it doesn't necessarily mean that he pushes Q2o or J6o even though they are thereotically stronger hands. Opinions?

Thanks.


3 replies
dydukas
Joined: 01.05.2009

Wiz hand ranking sucks for NLHE Sngs. And in this example it's just ridiculous, Nash with 98o as bottom is 37% and Wizs is 58, lol. In spots like that I use ICM Explorer + Equilab so you can weigh regs pushes towards suited connectors and fish towards rag aces for example.

And about his range, at least on my games (different network though) most regs push wider than Nash here cause people usually overestimate co and even btn steals.

From ICM Explorer:
Equity needed: 40,81%
Chip odds: 35,74%
Risk premium: 5,07%

From Equilab, this is what I'd push vs you:

       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     57.80%  56.03%   1.77% { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, JTo, T9o }
BB     42.20%  40.43%   1.77% { Ks5s }

And again next hand you'll post small blinds and would have less fold equity vs bigger stack in bb, then vs 2 bigger stacks in blinds fron btn, etc. So it's still a call Hope that makes sense, let's see what a judge will say. :)


akrammon
Joined: 17.05.2009

Thanks for the thourough analysis! :)

As for your last sentence, it does make sense, that's why I finally decided to call there.

I really like all the stuff you wrote so in the coming days I'm gonna learn using the ICM Explorer. Useful tool.


great analysis dydukas. +1