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FD + 2 overs OOP

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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($108)
Hero ($214)
UTG ($111)
UTG+1 ($104)
CO ($66.55)
BTN ($100) 20/17/AF: 2.9 (3.4,2,3)/WTSD:25/Steal BU:46/Fold to Resteal:65/CBet Flop: 56%/Fold CBet Raise on flop: 59/CBet Turn:51%

Dealt to Hero K♣ Q♣

fold, fold, CO calls $1, BTN raises to $4, fold, Hero calls $3, fold

FLOP ($9.50) T♣ 3♣ 9♥

Hero checks, BTN bets $5, Hero raises to $16, BTN calls $11

TURN ($41.50) T♣ 3♣ 9♥ 2♥

Hero checks, BTN checks

RIVER ($41.50) T♣ 3♣ 9♥ 2♥ 9♣

Hero bets $24, BTN folds

Hero shows K♣ Q♣

Hero wins $39.45

He will flat my C/R on flop w overpairs, sets and Tx. I guess if he is flattign my C/R he isn't folding to this turn blank.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.03% 31.03% 0.00% { KcQc }
MP3 68.97% 68.97% 0.00% { 99+, 33-22, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c}

Vs this range I have 31% equity so should I Ck/F (because if he Call the flop raise he never fold that turn) or should I bet something like 23 on that turn and shove river only if I hit flush? Also I have some reversed implied odds if he hits his nut flush.


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11 replies
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Given you have so much equity I usually bet the turn with the plan of shoving any river - if he calls the turn he most likely has a weak hand as he'd shove a lot of stuff for value&protection.

If you don't want to bet you still can't c/f - even if he bets $35 you have the equity to c/c.


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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Originally posted by Bierbaer
Given you have so much equity I usually bet the turn with the plan of shoving any river - if he calls the turn he most likely has a weak hand as he'd shove a lot of stuff for value&protection.

If you remember the hand I posted while ago with over pair on 2suited card board, we came to the conclusion that basically with set or over pair we'd better call the C/R and call again the turn only if we think that villain on a draw will fire his missed FDs.

Why would you bet the turn (which I am fine with btw) and bet any rivers? Isn't it the best scenario for villain if he has set here?

EDIT: here is the hand I am talking about:Over pair drawy board


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Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by Dublimax

Originally posted by Bierbaer
Given you have so much equity I usually bet the turn with the plan of shoving any river - if he calls the turn he most likely has a weak hand as he'd shove a lot of stuff for value&protection.

If you remember the hand I posted while ago with over pair on 2suited card board, we came to the conclusion that basically with set or over pair we'd better call the C/R and call again the turn only if we think that villain on a draw will fire his missed FDs.

Why would you bet the turn (which I am fine with btw) and bet any rivers? Isn't it the best scenario for villain if he has set here?
In this case it is - but we're not playing vs sets only ;).
I think that overpairs and sets are in fact shoving for the most part in which case we're committed - but it's not too bad because we have >30% equity.
However, given this assumption, once he calls the turn his riverrange is fairly weak so we have foldequity for a +EV shove.

EDIT: here is the hand I am talking about:Over pair drawy board


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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

I don't understand why we should assume that he shoves his strong holdings on turn. Even if he does to me if he calls turn w JT he has to call a blank on the river. So imo we have no FE on the river and we have K high so i kind of disagree with the shove on a blank.

These FD OOP are very tricky to play imo. What do you think about C/C flop and C/R Turn because we have way more FE on the turn and then we cab barrel blank river because he puts us less on a FD so he shouldnt bluff catch so much.


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salflip
Joined: 02.10.2007

i def bet the turn, like bierbaer said we have to c/c t anyway which puts us in a weird spot otr if we miss. if we get raised ott we can fold, if he just flats we can 3 barrel most rivers. Not sure i agree we can shove any rvr tho. would you really shv with the T♦ otr bierbaer when all the draws brick or the 2 :spade: or 9 :spade:? whats your reasoning behind it? balance? and it seems like a bad spot to bluff thus we bluff?

i think the range u gave him is def too strong i dont really c allot of people flatting sets on this texture btw, might be a good play tho if they think ur on that lvl and are going to barrel away


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TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

OCs, FD, GS .... OMG, feels like PLO!

vs AA we have 40%, vs AT 60%. we clearly have a monster, even though its just K high atm. I would play the hand as if I have 100% EQ.

I think you are overestimating his set ratio here. Mostly he has a GS, weak pair and you just want to fold him off his EQ share. If he has a set, he has it and you get it in as 1:2 underdog. Those cases are rare enough, we don't have to focus on his sets and AA range. obv against that range only we want to c/c c/c and lead out river hits, but those hands are just a tiny part of his overall range.

Villain seems to be a very solid, not too creative reg for those limits.

I assume he will fold 9x and Tx vs c/r, bet, bet more often than not. Maybe even JJ-AA by the river if he feels like playing weak and if our image is solid.

78, QJ will also fold T or R (ofc we beat those hands, but we can't rly c/c R if it blanks)

KhQh, 6h7h will also fold to a R shove

for our overall gameplan I like c/r, bet, bet the most. Longterm he will make wrong folds and only once in a while bluff catch correctly. But even then, we just make a note and we get paid on our sets next time.

However, I like c/c c/r as well vs specific opponents who double barrell air and weak made hands (9x in this case) a lot.


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salflip
Joined: 02.10.2007

Are there any rivers your not shoving if we miss btw?


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TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

Originally posted by salflip
Are there any rivers your not shoving if we miss btw?

K♥ and Q♥ it depends on the specific reads I have on my opponent. all other cards I ship vs this kind of plr


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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Originally posted by TwiceT
for our overall gameplan I like c/r, bet, bet the most. Longterm he will make wrong folds and only once in a while bluff catch correctly. But even then, we just make a note and we get paid on our sets next time.

How would you play this hand vs villain that wouldn't fold any overpairs/Tx by the river?

Because in the end my range is somehow tight. I mean I don't have JJ+ because I would sqz pre flop being OOP.
So for value I have sets, T9 only because I am not going to C/R, bet,bet with Tx.
Combos wise I have way more FDs than value hands.

If I am in his shoes I bluff catch wide here.


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TwiceT
Joined: 15.07.2007

Originally posted by Dublimax

Originally posted by TwiceT
for our overall gameplan I like c/r, bet, bet the most. Longterm he will make wrong folds and only once in a while bluff catch correctly. But even then, we just make a note and we get paid on our sets next time.

How would you play this hand vs villain that wouldn't fold any overpairs/Tx by the river?

he still has a wide bu open range. he folds crap, A high, lower pairs vs flop c/r

but if you say (which imo you cannot, but let's assume it for now) he NEVER folds after he b/c F, I obv c/c or c/f T depending on betsize. I know I have 25% EQ vs AA and a bit more vs QQ/AT, so I call if I getclose to 3:1 there is def also a bit of implied odds cuz we can lead out small if we hit R

I just think your assumption is completely unrealistic. But if it's correct, obv we don't want to bet turn shove river when he ALWAYS has Tx, orr JJ+ and never folds to a blank and always folds when flush hit. sounds like BU is a superuser ...


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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Originally posted by TwiceT
sounds like BU is a superuser ...

_evil:

Ok I got you. Thanks


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