$0.1/$0.2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J:h, T:c.
4 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.
- So we're up against an open raise from MP3. This player is an unknown to me. I put him on a 20% hand range and called expecting to have around 37% equity. Equilab gives us something close to this.
Flop: (4.5 SB) 2:d, J:s, K:c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.
- I flop 2nd pair. Against the hand range I put him on he'll have worse hands that will often fold if I play aggressively and better hands that will often continue by calling down or raising. For this reason I felt like calling is a good option.
Turn: (3.25 BB) 9:c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.
Spoiler
We have a similar decision on the turn. I'm getting 4:1 to call with 2nd pair, but I've improved to a GSSD and have about 7 outs when behind. We need to discount my chances of improving if a T hits on the river because any Q has a straight and his hand range will have some Q's like KQ or QQ, and QJ. Also, 2 pair doesn't give me the best hand if he happens to have a set.
With only 7 outs we cannot call, but I have 2nd pair and may win at showdown against TT, 88, or even AQ/AT that have bet the turn aggressively (these hands will often check back on the river).
I decided to call at 4:1 because in addition to having about 15% equity when behind, I think we'll win at showdown unimproved at least 10% of the time against his turn betting range (when he checks back on the river). We also have some implied odds when we lead the river with a straight.
River: (5.25 BB) 7:d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.
- I don't expect players to barrel the river so often with hands worse than mine. I'm getting 6:1 odds to call so I need to win in 16.7% of cases. I think thats just too often to make this call.
