Hi guys, sandraardnas posted an interesting hand in Advanced hand Discussions (Link). Thank you all for participating. Please leave your feedback and suggestions.
Let's get into it:
Originally posted by sandraardnas
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.SB: $144.63 (144.6 bb)
BB: $103.50 (103.5 bb)
UTG: $123.08 (123.1 bb)
MP: $157.45 (157.5 bb)
CO: $112.45 (112.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $105.39 (105.4 bb)Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q
9
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, SB raises to $7, BB folds, Hero calls $5Flop: ($15) 6
3
SB bets $9.54, Hero raises to $21, SB calls $11.46Turn: ($57) 4
SB checks, Hero checksRiver: ($57) Q
(2 players)
SB bets $76, Hero calls $76Results:
Spoiler
$209 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 6
SB showed 55
Hero mucked Q
Hi, villain is probably reg its his second 3bet in a row and third on four overall in these positions.
His 3bet in this spot is 16%, so I gues now its like 25 including trashy A7o etc. so I floated pre to raise or call almost any flop.
So I went with plan and raised cause he dont hit on this flop and even though I cant rep much I think he would just fold his air which is main part of his range I guess. And I could play any good six+ like that against such wide ranges. On turn I stopped cause I had just nothing and Im not sure if he would throw away pairs to any bet.
On the river I called cause he is very polarized with his bet to nuts or air/pair turned into bluff and people doesnt have nuts too often.
My opinion: Fold flop.
I think the more interesting (and useful) part of this hand is the pre flop and flop play.
Villain is makes a 3bet SB vs BU. We know in a large sample that he 3bets SB vs BU around 16%, and he 3bet vs Hero 3 out of 4 ocasions, so it's reasonable to say that he might be using a wider range against Hero.
The decision pre flop is definitely close and I don't think we can say the call with Q9o is a mistake, at least a big one. Against a potsize 3bet with a 16% frequency, IP, we can defend profitably, at least in my opinion, a range close to this one:
It's relevant to notice that villain barely has a calling range on the SB against steals, which means he uses a depolarized 3bet range, which makes it tougher for us to call these borderline hands (it would be very easy if villain didn't have in his range hands like QTo, K9o or A2s)
Whenever the decision it's close we can try to "untie" it by looking at some of villain's tendencies and try to find something we can exploit. In this case I don't see anything clearly exploitable in villain's stats (he doesn't cbet too much, he doesn't x/f too much, he doesn't fold to 4bet too much, etc).
Flop it's also pretty interesting.
It's a board that clearly favors the 3bettor and he should be cbetting it close to 100% of the time. And BU is gonna have a hard time trying to minimize SB's EV. It's likely that BU should be overfolding this spot to a cbet. Villain is also cbetting a size that seems quite correct for this flop, so we are even more screwed.
As a general gameplan I think we should:
- Call all pairs, most FDs and all gutshots. Call pretty much every A high. Hands like KQ with backdoor should be borderline calls.
- Raise for "value", we should be using always 2♦:X:diamond:, 4♦:X:diamond:, 5♦:X:diamond: (which is mainly Ad2d, Ad4d and Ad5d). We can raise the nutFD although we don't have to IMO. I think raising hands like 44-55 makes some sense since they are hands that have okay equity against villain's continuing range and they like that villain folds so many of those hands that have ~20-25% equity (overcards). Sets we could raise but I would be mostly calling with those.
- Raise as a bluff, we cannot have many on this board. I think okay candidates are KQ with or without back doors and KJ/KT with backdoors. So I think Qx9d is a very loose raise (before we start thinking about raising this hand we still have QJ/QT with backdoors) and villain doesn't seem to like to fold.
Open question: what do you guys think about river? Do you think villain will value bet in this manner with AA?
