Zoom, KJs River decision

I would expect a C/R on the turn if he had the boat. This looks like a blocking bet to me, most likely a hand like AQ or possibly even JT. I would be shoving the river.

Why would a boat raise turn? It can just call.
I am not folding river but like the call better.

If I had a full house (FH) I would check/call the turn and most likely check/raise the river.
If he check/raised he will let us fold a lot of draws and weak made hands and he has no need to protect his hands either. I can’t fold on his donk lead on river either, but it wouldn’t me a surprise if he had a FH here

Cheers,
SDK1987

I would rather call the river without the nuts. I don't think he will call with wors if we shove.

Originally posted by Alleen86
I would rather call the river without the nuts. I don't think he will call with wors if we shove.

Indeed for a shove you need to have decent reads on him.

I wouldn't raise the guy pre-flop to begin with. KJs looks pretty but turns out to be often dominated against UTG range. Besides, no need to enlarge the pot holding potential sd, fd.

After looking at the hand again with the other posts in mind, I'll have to tuck my tail and change my answer on this one. I do think this can be a blocking bet in some instances, but as SDK said, without more specific reads the best play is to call OTR. It's most likely a bet to get some value and not be checked behind (or to induce a raise from a spaz like me :f_mad:).
It also would make more sense to C/C OTT with a FH in villains spot and then bet out or C/R OTR; given what our hand looks like, it would be difficult for us to call a turn C/R and river shove. Good insights.

KJs 3bet vs UTG is meant as a bluff and not for value. We would not dominate UTG here but fold out many weaker pp, SCs, AT-AQ, KQ hands. If called, we indeed should be very cautious and we should call river here.

I'm considering clickback/fold here. I don't see a ton of boats in villain's range. A fair portion of the time he's protecting his 2 pair or set on that flop. Also, there are way more Qx, KK, AA type hands in his range that will call a small river raise, but not a large raise so I don't think shoving is right here. I would assume there are the same amount of Tx hands in his range as there are boats so shoving is probably the same EV as calling, just with higher variance. We need to extract value from the other hands in his range to increase our EV.

I think calling is fine, but when we raise and get called we win an extra $2. When we raise and he folds we win the same amount as calling. He's never 3bet bluffing this river so when he raises, we fold and lose $2 more than when we just call. So in assuming that his frequency of Tx hands is equal to the frequency of his FH+ hands, it stands that if he calls with any Qx, AA or KK, our EV will be higher than calling. Therefore I think minraising>calling>shoving in this spot.

Originally posted by Washdogg
I'm considering clickback/fold here. I don't see a ton of boats in villain's range. A fair portion of the time he's protecting his 2 pair or set on that flop. Also, there are way more Qx, KK, AA type hands in his range that will call a small river raise, but not a large raise so I don't think shoving is right here. I would assume there are the same amount of Tx hands in his range as there are boats so shoving is probably the same EV as calling, just with higher variance. We need to extract value from the other hands in his range to increase our EV.

I think calling is fine, but when we raise and get called we win an extra $2. When we raise and he folds we win the same amount as calling. He's never 3bet bluffing this river so when he raises, we fold and lose $2 more than when we just call. So in assuming that his frequency of Tx hands is equal to the frequency of his FH+ hands, it stands that if he calls with any Qx, AA or KK, our EV will be higher than calling. Therefore I think minraising>calling>shoving in this spot.

If you MR OTR you'll have $1.79 left and a pot of $10.01; that's a tough laydown with a straight in this spot. I do agree he protects some of the time on the flop with two pair and sets, but I think we have to discount the chance he has AA or KK as he didn't 4B PF. Qx is a possibility, but it really only includes AQ, KQ and QJ, while I can see villain having most of the FH's possible (QQ, QT, T9, 99 & TT for quads). I think if he's betting this river with a Qx-type hand he is planning on folding if we come over the top and obviously calling with his FH+'s. If he told himself he's not folding TP in this spot I don't think he makes a donk bet OTR with the expectation to call a raise with as strong of a line we've taken; he just checks and hopes we either check behind or shrugs his shoulders and calls the third barrel.

Click/back folding the river would be an option if we had pretty much the same amount of chips as our villain during the hand, but that isn’t the case here.

Originally posted by Pr1cedIn
I would expect a C/R on the turn if he had the boat. This looks like a blocking bet to me, most likely a hand like AQ or possibly even JT. I would be shoving the river.

If blocking bet, then why raise?

Originally posted by SDK1987
If I had a full house (FH) I would check/call the turn and most likely check/raise the river.
If he check/raised he will let us fold a lot of draws and weak made hands and he has no need to protect his hands either. I can’t fold on his donk lead on river either, but it wouldn’t me a surprise if he had a FH here

Cheers,
SDK1987

That line (that you suggest) with a FH is actually pretty bad. Both check-raise turn and Check-call turn, donk river (as in OP) are better. You need to have a look at the math of river check-raising with nuts.

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Pr1cedIn
I would expect a C/R on the turn if he had the boat. This looks like a blocking bet to me, most likely a hand like AQ or possibly even JT. I would be shoving the river.

If blocking bet, then why raise?

You wouldn't. I got to change my answer after looking over the hand more and reposted.