Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $10.77 (107.7 bb)
BB: $13.95 (139.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $14.70 (147 bb)
MP: $6.12 (61.2 bb)
CO: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q♣: K♦:
Hero raises to $0.25, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15
Flop: ($0.80) 3♣: Q♠: 6♥: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.57, CO folds, BB calls $0.57
Turn: ($1.94) T♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.11, BB calls $1.11
River: ($4.16) 7♠: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Against Villain's continuation range OTT I have 60% + equity, so I can value bet.
Since he did not x/r OTT or OTF, I don't expect him to have sets and QT. Given population read, that people have mostly nuts OTT, when raising, I’d fold here vs raise (The Baluga Theorem). That being said I expect Villain to have some FD and SD in his turn calling range.
Board: 6♥Q♠3♣ T♣ 7♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.03% 33.33% 7.69% { JJ, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, 54s, Ac6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo, QJo }
BB 58.97% 51.28% 7.69% { KdQc }
I bet small (11bb into 19bb) to keep his range wider.
Plan is to play: bet/bet/check back.
If Villain raises all his nuts, backdoor FD's and SD's OTT, even then I have slightly over 60% equity against turn calling range.
Board: 6♥Q♠3♣ T♣ 7♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 36.67% 26.67% 10.00% { JJ, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, AQo, KQo, QJo }
BB 63.33% 53.33% 10.00% { KdQc }
In order to have a value bet OTR Villain needs to call down with all QJ, Q9s and JJ. Which is unrealistic.
I think his calling/raising range OTR might look like this:
Board: 6♥Q♠3♣ T♣ 7♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 84.21% 68.42% 15.79% { AQs, KQs, 54s, 7c6c, AQo, KQo }
BB 15.79% 0.00% 15.79% { KdQc }
Let's find point where we are 50%:
Board: 6♥Q♠3♣ T♣ 7♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.00% 40.63% 9.38% { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, 54s, 7c6c, AQo, KQo, QJo }
BU 50.00% 40.63% 9.38% { KdQc }
So, the tipping point for river value bet is where Villain calls with all of his TP and half of his JJ (I took out combos with Jc).
Conclusion:
- TP type hands typically play for 2 streets of value;
- betting large OTT might isolate us vs strong range;
- betting OTT with one pair type hand vs aggro reg is a bad idea, since he has a lots of ways to play back at us and we would be forced to play way too big pot with one pair type hand;
- If we play against station, then checking back a river is a mistake since he will have much wider range. As per example, we needed only three JJ combos to have a value bet. Vs station we can add also Q8s, Q7s, Q9o, etc., so our EQ increases a lot.
- playing this spot with QJ is way worse and closer to 1 street of value vs passive and/or tight player.
