Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

Did i make a mistake with this analysis?

13 Posts
13 Users
1 Reactions
1,069 Views
FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

So i got to this river with a Q high flush, based on his play i thought its quite obvious he has a flush with this pot sized river bet, at the time i said i i can shove vs smaller flush's with brings up the question, how many smaller flush's are actually in his range, would you say this is about right, i had 81 hands on him so hes sort of unknown.

But lets say hes a regular he isnt going to be too loose in SB

probably 30%, lets ignore the other combos because i dont think sets and other 2 pair type hands are most likley check calling or betting smaller.

i guess this is probably his range after we romve the blocker hands:

Flush's we beat

9♥:T♥:- T♥:J♥: -9♥:J♥:

Flush's that beat us

K♥:J♥:- K♥:T♥:- K♥:9♥:- A♥:2♥:- A♥:5♥:- A♥:7♥:- A♥:9♥:- A♥:J♥:- A♥:K♥:

Its really tough to even call a bet vs that range, did i go wrong anywhere?

poker Stars.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $44.77 (179.1 bb)
MP: $25.44 (101.8 bb)
CO: $24.73 (98.9 bb)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥: 8♥:
4 folds, SB raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.24) 4♥: J♠: 6♥: (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.24) 8♠: (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($8.24) 3♥: (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero raises to $20.88 and is all-in, SB calls $13.88 and is all-in

Results:

Spoiler

$50 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: 4♥: J♠: 6♥: 8♠: 3♥:
SB showed A♥: 2♥: and won $48 ($23 net)
Hero showed Q♥: 8♥: and lost (-$25 net)


Reply
Quote
12 replies
Xixi74
Joined: 08.09.2013

as you said, he's got a polarized range after his size on the river.
So your hand is just a bluff catcher.


Reply
Quote
N3bojsa
Joined: 03.06.2012

agree with xixi74 here. Vs some guys it might be ok to play it that way but those players I wouldve jammed against are pretty retarded :) so...


Reply
Quote
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I have moved this hand to our hand discussion board, because it’s fits better there.

You can ask yourself with what kind of suited hands you would raise on the SB. Then you can see there aren’t too many flush possibilities that you win against. I would also call the river or you have some crazy reads on him.

Cheers,
SDK1987


Reply
Quote
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I agree with calling the river. Not enough worse hands are stacking off vs a shove probably, as you concluded in the openning post.


Reply
Quote
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Conversely, if you hold the naked A♥: and stacks are deep, consider throwing in a humongous raise.


Reply
Quote
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Maybe a raise at some point?


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Not sure if I like the call here but I guess our hand is strong enough here. Think we should accept the fact that villain has us beat with a better hand.


Reply
Quote
Deomedes
Joined: 12.11.2011

I think too that he has enough worst Flushes to call us with so shoving is in my opinion is the right play.

I would also like a raise here and there with that hand on flops like this one. That gives as more value OTR. cause he bets and calls wider.


Reply
Quote
scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

By shoving, you turned a monster hand into a bluff. If villain does not have the nut hand, then a raise is much more scarier for him.


Reply
Quote
Pajod
Joined: 05.08.2008

"Its really tough to even call a bet vs that range, did i go wrong anywhere?"

If you beat some hands from his value range its always easy call.

Im just calling on the river without reads. I guess something like Qh2h would be closer (we block less worse FDs) but still not strong enough to shove imo.


Reply
Quote
robstars7
Joined: 23.05.2012

hand played perfect until the river.

Its just a call given the way his played it and his sizing on the river. We have a strong hand but not good enough to shove vs villains line. WP in general though :)


Reply
Quote
andschool
Joined: 13.05.2014

Hi...i was gonna look at your ranges but when i click on MP and so on nothing changes.
Do you play fast poker on your channel?
Ill look you up soon.


Reply
Quote