Hi guys, our member ZZMidway posted this hand that generated some discussion so I thought about giving my insight.
Thanks ZZ for posting and you guys for participating in the discussion.
Here's the hand:
Originally posted by ZZMidway
€0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
1700hands 28 20 ORBU 47 wwsf39 W$SD42
fold3b57 4b14I would like to know the better line. Maybe with this SPR the best is xpush flop... but i wouldnt have any hands to call @ turn....
At this turn although i have TP+OESD i think that my hand is underdog
SB: 255.35 BB (VPIP: 24.12, PFR: 19.74, 3Bet Preflop: 9.30, Hands: 231)
Hero (BB): 121.4 BB
UTG: 150.85 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: 118.75 BB (VPIP: 25.95, PFR: 20.68, 3Bet Preflop: 5.58, Hands: 1,375)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.53, PFR: 19.37, 3Bet Preflop: 6.05, Hands: 1,263)SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ J♥
fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9.9 BB, BTN raises to 23 BB, Hero calls 13.1 BB
Flop: (46.5 BB, 2 players) K♣ 3♥ T♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 22.25 BB, Hero calls 22.25 BBTurn: (91 BB, 2 players) Q♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 54.75 BB, Hero calls 54.75 BBRiver: (200.5 BB, 2 players) Q♠
So, pre flop. Do we 3bet or not?
Well, although there are situations where 3betting KJs is the best play but I don't think it is this one. 2 main reasons:
1- villain does not appear to be opening that wide from BU (47% is not a big number)
2- he opened 3bbs which should indicate a tighter range
So I would for sure call pre flop (I'd 3bet KQ). Anyways, the 3bet is not terrible, we do get folds (outcome that brings the most EV), we do get calls where we do okay against villain range. Getting a 4bet is of course the worst outcome for us, it's a grim situation given that villain's range is in this case tighter than it should. I'm not sure between the fold or the call, I think it will be pretty close in EV.
Post flop I think it actually is not that hard to figure out our play, in this case Equilab gives us a little assistance. Flop seems standard to me.
Turn we get ~27% pot odds. Let's check some equity scenarios. First a pessimistic one:
Board: K♣2♥T♣ Q♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 12.57% 12.17% 0.40% { KhJh }
MP3 87.43% 87.03% 0.40% { KK+, TT, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AsJd, AcJd, KhTd, KsTd, KcTd }
In this first one we assume villain might show up with some AcXc (which he should be calling the 3bet pre flop for the most part) and some combos of AJo, KTo and TT.
Optimistic range:
Board: K♣2♥T♣ Q♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 49.77% 49.77% 0.00% { KhJh }
MP3 50.23% 50.23% 0.00% { KK, AdAc, Ac3c, AcKd, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ac4s, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ac3s }
In this case we assume villain is not 4betting pre flop hands like AJ/KQ/Axs and he is not jamming every time on the turn with hands that crushes us like AA with club or AK with club. On the other he is 4betting some Axo that finds himself playing like this post flop with the Ac.
It seems to me that this second range is not unreasonable so although our equity is not great, our pot odds are very good, and it's not hard to find a situation where we do get >27% equity against villain's shoving range.
What do you guys think about all this and what do you expect villain to do turn with hands like AK/AA with and without club?
