nl20 Speed - Monster Draw vs Double Aggression, Deep

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
Hey G,

Before we go into postflop, tell me why do you deem preflop standard? I see it as a very obvious fold without stats, maybe bluff 3bet, never a call.

Wassup Manu,

Some nice connectivity and can hit flops a lot of ways. A lot of hidden straight potential too. I love J9s, it's one of my favourite hands. I have position too. Almost definitely not optimal play but what can I say, everyone's got a favourite hand.... What about postflop?

Thanks

Well, make your favourite hand AA please ♦

The preflop call will be -EV unless you know some leaks you can exploit. Calling just to hit won't be good at all unfortunately.

As you can see, even when hitting you have a tough spot. You don't hit much better than this yet when you face a raise you are in trouble. That said, it's still a close shove 100bb deep, probably close than you think just because MP can have a lot more overpairs that want to shut you out of the pot but you have thje equity against such a range.

If you were deeper, it ofc firstly depends how deep. If you are like 500bb deep, you can potentially bluff bottom set out of the pot since it's so far from the nuts. Prob best to look at some equities:

Board: J♦8♣6♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    67.59%  67.59%   0.00% { JJ, 88, 66 }
MP3    32.41%  32.41%   0.00% { Jc9c }

Board: J♦8♣6♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    55.05%  55.05%   0.00% { JJ+, 88, 66, QcTc }
MP3    44.95%  44.95%   0.00% { Jc9c }

Board: J♦8♣6♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    54.08%  54.08%   0.00% { JJ+, 88, 66, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc }
MP3    45.92%  45.92%   0.00% { Jc9c }

So overall, we should not fold against a raise and we can think about trying to clear equity and 3bet then get it in, esp if more than sets get it in, or call to draw basically. Either will be +EV.

That said, I will stress again that preflop is a fold given unknown MP opener and will not create for a profitable situation in general to call.