overpair with paired flop

Joined: 15.02.2013

18.04.2014, 14:18 0

PokerStars - $0.05/$0.10 - Holdem - 10 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 135.9 BB
UTG+1: 12.6 BB (VPIP: 63.89, PFR: 47.22, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 36)
UTG+2: 18 BB (VPIP: 21.85, PFR: 5.04, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 119)
MP: 8.4 BB (VPIP: 40.49, PFR: 2.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.51, Hands: 695)
MP+1: 23.1 BB (VPIP: 27.67, PFR: 3.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 621)
MP+2: 4.2 BB (VPIP: 24.64, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 69)
CO: 28.5 BB (VPIP: 21.31, PFR: 10.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.02, Hands: 816)
BTN: 11.5 BB (VPIP: 47.37, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
SB: 50.8 BB
BB: 9 BB (VPIP: 39.18, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)

SB posts SB 0.2 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.7 BB) Hero has J♣ J♦

Hero raises to 1 BB, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, MP+2 calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB, BB calls 0.5 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 5 players) 9♣ T♦ 9♥
SB checks, BB bets 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 1 BB, UTG+1 raises to 1.5 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, UTG+1 calls 0.5 BB

Turn: (16 BB, 3 players) T♠
BB bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, UTG+1 calls 1 BB

River: (19 BB, 3 players) 2♥
BB bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, UTG+1 calls 1 BB

So the background to this....

It was very late at night and after seeing some very odd play, my gut feeling was that UTG+1 was very likely drunk ♠_confused: So with that in mind, I felt that he could have been playing absolutely ATC.

The SB is a somewhat tougher player but was playing a lot of bluffs and as a rule 3betting etc from the blinds.

The BB was hardest to judge as with the little data that I had, he seemed to be playing a very loose range and had gone to showdown already a few times with low pairs on boards full of broadway and made flushes so he didn't seem to be very aware of what might be out there and was playing his own cards. But he also had taken a couple of big pots...whether out of skill or luck I wasn't sure...

So whereas the UTG+1's raise on the flop didn't worry me so much, the BB did make me stop and wonder.

So by the turn I was in calling mood. But was I right to continue? The pot was so enticing and against these opponents, I dreaded the mathematical catastrophe of letting them win with A8o etc....

But was I just throwing money away when the board is looking so scary?

Thank you!

Charlie

We start our journey watching rockets soar but end as a beggar at the river while our enemy sails by on a boat full of deuces and sevens. And the only comfort will be the age-old mantra whispered in our ear...

That's poker baby, that's poker!

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4 replies

YohanN7

Joined: 15.06.2009

Posts: 4,700

18.04.2014, 16:48 0

I think you are beat around 95% of the time
I don't blame you for either folding or calling

Right, folding a winning hand is a mathematical catastrophe if you do it too often. If 95%, or something like that, are correct folds (given what they actually hold), then it isn't a catastrophe, folding is then the right play.

It looks like there's a chance you have UTG+1 beat. The BB could be playing a straight draw like this (though I wouldn't). Do you win 1/20? Your guess is as good as anybody else's (except perhaps for our judges guesses :)).

My assessment:

On flop you can't fold because of pot odds. You played the flop correctly.
On turn you almost have the odds to chase the nut full house. A T might be good too - and there's an outside chance you are ahead.
On the river you get 20:1.

Don't think I'd fold AA, and as the hand played out, AA and JJ seem to have about the same value. Hmmm..., folding AA OTR means you'd require a full house to call.

Call, and expect to lose 95% of the time, but this is just my guess.

There's always going to be one fly in the ointment - Boomer2k10

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Avataren

Joined: 28.04.2010

Posts: 1,754

18.04.2014, 23:24 0

calling down is the only right play from the turn. well played.

http://i.imgur.com/MvKWM6x.png

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ClerkenwellBoi

Joined: 15.02.2013

Posts: 85

19.04.2014, 19:32 0

Thank you guys for your thoughts and advice. Very much appreciated!

I still struggle with what feels at the time a kinife edge type decision where the poker angel on my shoulder is screaming, "Are you mad?! There's two pairs on the board - Dive! Dive! Dive!" and then the devil on the other says slyly, "Oh come now, you weakling - you just saw the idiot showdown with Ace rags, don't let him get away with it again!"

Thank you for giving me some food for thought when trying to find the right path between those two rogues

Cheers,

Charlie

We start our journey watching rockets soar but end as a beggar at the river while our enemy sails by on a boat full of deuces and sevens. And the only comfort will be the age-old mantra whispered in our ear...

That's poker baby, that's poker!

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firsttsunami

Joined: 23.01.2006

Posts: 30,011

21.04.2014, 12:17 0

Tough situation. Would you have said that UTG and BB are reasonable or at least one of'em is reasonable, i'd recommended you to let your hand go on the Turn. BB coldcaps the Flop after raise and reraise. And you block JJ for QJ, one of the legit Draws he might be overplaying with. But for 1:18 you can almost call on your outs, considered the Action you'll receive by the river if you'll hit and UTG might even have KQ or KJ and BB J8 or 87. Who knows. As you described them, i feel them to be capable of having those ilegitim Hands. Given those guys and the PotOdds, i like calling down, though having a bad feeling about being beat most of the times. With some more accurate reads, i dont mind folding the Turn.

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