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A8s bubble fold

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angalius
Joined: 10.11.2011

Poker Stars, $1.32 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 4,572 (22.9 bb)
Hero (BB): 2,409 (12 bb)
CO: 2,371 (11.9 bb)
BTN: 4,148 (20.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8♣: A♣:
2 folds, SB raises to 600, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

500 pot
SB mucked and won 500 (275 net)

31/22/169 hands
He definetely could do this with worse hands, but 3x seems a little bit too much, I think he raise/calls here a lot and I should fold, considering its a bubble play


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

3x is indeed suspicious and you need to have a decent amount of fold equity with a shorter stack still in to make a shove profitable and I would fold here as well without reads on the SB.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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mostlyfolding
Joined: 31.10.2016

Without some concrete info on his tendencies on bubble, and his more general stealing frequencies, it is difficult to determine his range here. If he is stealing wide, as he should, we can shove almost any two here (for example if he raises 40% and calls with 10%). But if he steals with less than around 23% and calls with half of this stealing range then this is a fold. But when he calls with one third of this stealing range, a shove only just becomes profitable again - A8s now being the weakest ace we can shove.

There are many known unknowns here, and even with more info this is a finely balanced spot. I agree with SDK that a fold is the better option here. Its what I call the 'wince-fold :f_biggrin:

(ranges used are Slansky Chubukov)


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