Hello,
In this blog I will record my progress in a 3months spin&go challenge on Winamax.
I’m in my mid-20s, live in France and currently taking a break from a high stress position for 3 months. I was a recreational player (read: fish) a few years back, particularly in DON.
Analysis of spin&go, structure on Winamax
SGs seem to be the “new” shit. Very high variance, quick games, little postflop play and probably the largest pool of player.
Structure is weird but can be reduced 95% to a
xBI .07x rake 3handed sng, winner take all, PP 2.75x
Spoiler
multiplier Odds 1st 2nd 3rd % potential
10000----00.0004%-----80%-------12%-------8%--01.4%
1000------00.0016%-----80%-------12%-------8%--00.6%
100--------00.0080%-----80%-------12%-------8%--00.3%
50---------00.0250%-----80%-------12%-------8%--00.4%
20---------00.1000%-----100%------------------------00.7%
10---------00.7000%-----100%------------------------02.5%
6-----------07.0000%-----100%------------------------15.1%
4-----------18.0000%-----100%------------------------25.8%
2-----------74.0000%-----100%------------------------53.2%
95% of earnings come from the x2, x4 and x6. (When everything is accounted for we get the standard 2.79)
This stuff is fun to look at but it’s quite irrelevant once over the 5-10€ buy-in range.
At that point rakeback becomes significant (about 30% in my specific case on winamax). Over 15€ it’s nearly 50/50 and RB dominates over 25€. (based on the winamax VIP structure, considering that winrate decreases as BI increase, …).
My project
My situation is as follow : I quit my previous job a few weeks ago and have an opportunity lined up for September. That means unemployment benefits for this period which reduce my opportunity cost. Hence why I can dedicate ~200h/month over the next 3 months, even if it means doing it for 1.5€/h the first month.
If successful (good enough ROI at high enough BI to generate 2k€ or more/month), I might move to a low cost of living city and continue for some time.
Gear and setup
Spoiler
Hardware:
• Desktop with a 27” 1440p main screen, 24” 1080p secondary
• Laptop on the side
Software:
• Winamax
• HM2 to get bulk data
• ICMizer 2 pro (mainly for review sessions and training P/F ranges)
• Excel monitoring sheet (might have gone overboard on that one, looks more like the base for a 1mm business plan than a 300€ project..)
• This blog
BR strategy
SGs have wild variance. If I do get a 3% ROI (No way to get my actual ROI before a few thousand games and it’s not like it’s fixed anyway) that’s still gives hundreds of BI in down swings.
I’ll be starting at 1€ BI (winamax doesn’t have .25 or .5) for most of the first month.
I’ve decided to go with a 300 BI bankroll that I’ll unlock as needed in 100€ blocks.
If I beat 1€ consistently (1k games+), I’ll start moving to the next limit at 100BI.
Spoiler
For instance:
• BR > 200€ -> switch to 50/50 1€/2€ BI for a week or two then only 2€
• BR > 500€ -> switch to 50/50 2€/5€ BI then to 5€ only
If I go under 100 BI of the previous buy-in, I’ll switch back to that. I might be more conservative than that in practice, that’s a hard limit.
Challenges
The biggest risk is tilt during the early phases. Playing for cents, at half the hourly rate of my internships a few years back, will be hard. Yet there is a learning/practice phase that needs to be done and I might as well do it at lower BI.
That blog, to some extent, is part of my tilt management strategy. Some other steps: daily workout, session by session tilt “score”, daily writ-up on my mindset, …
I will update this part over time.
Daily schedule
• Breakfast: Session review, write-up (incl. post hands in the discussion forum) from previous day, around 1h
• Poker study (and/or ICMizer 120 daily hands/other training), 1h
• 1st morning session, 2h
• Break, quick review
• 2nd morning session, 2h
• Break, quick review. (between 10 a.m. and noon at this point) // lunch
• 3rd morning/1st afternoon session, 2h
• Break, quick review
• 1st/2nd afternoon session, 2h
• Break, quick review (between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m.)
• Workout, personal errands, …
Two days/week are "off" with only two 2h sessions. That's 48h/w of poker with 15ish hours of studying (hand review, theory, ...). That's still 20-30% more free time than my previous job, which is both nice and sad.
Monthly goals
1st month:
Spoiler
• Basic Push/fold ranges mastered at every ES
• Decent, tight pre-flop at higher ES (20+ BB)
• Confident 3 tables
• Validate the lifestyle, have tilt under control, etc.
Numerical targets:
• Game played >5k
• Winrate > 36% -> ROI before RB > 0 (actual target 3%)
2nd month:
Spoiler
• Prove LT ROI
• Getting to 4 tables
• Test the 5€ field if BR allows
Numerical targets:
• Game played >6k
• Winrate > 36% -> target ROI ~2.5%
3rd month:
Spoiler
• Prove LT ROI at 5-10€ BI
• Prove income viability
• Test the 10€field if BR allows
Numerical targets:
• Game played >8.5k
• Winrate >= 36.5% -> ROI before RB >= 2.5%
Overall numerical targets:
• Game played >20k (620h)
• Buy-in: ~87k (4.3€ avg)
• Winrate ~2.4%
• Winamax miles generated >50k (yearly status)
If I get through that, I might join spinlegend to further sharpen my skills and be in a mutually beneficial poker relationship or continue on higher BI (10€ BI at this volume and 2.3%ROI is equivalent to a 35k/y job).
There is a high likelihood of failure (tilt management) and that’s fine.
This blog will be updated daily with a review of the previous day, link to hands analysis on the SNG forum…
There will be weekly updates with more in-depth statistics.
Have fun.
